Serie A
All matches of this round are finished.
The most likely result happened in 8 of 10 matches — the model expected 5.4.
ⓘ The model gives every match three probabilities (home / draw / away). The favourite is the side with the highest chance of winning; even a 45% favourite fails to win about 5 of 10 similar matches.
SUNDAY, 25 OCTOBER
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 74%X 17%AWAY 9%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Internazionale Milano 74%✓ happened
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 45%X 26%AWAY 29%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Atalanta 45%· Actual: Draw 26%
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 46%X 29%AWAY 24%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Genoa 46%✓ happened
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 10%X 22%AWAY 69%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Juventus 69%✓ happened
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 19%X 27%AWAY 55%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Milan 55%✓ happened
SATURDAY, 24 OCTOBER
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 33%X 31%AWAY 36%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Bologna FC 1909 36%✓ happened
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 66%X 21%AWAY 13%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Como 1907 66%✓ happened
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 32%X 31%AWAY 37%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Roma 37%· Actual: Draw 31%
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 60%X 27%AWAY 14%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Lazio 60%✓ happened
FRIDAY, 23 OCTOBER
What do the terms mean?Probability · Probability bar · Favourite…
- Probability
- The percentage the model gives for a result happening. “45%” = in about 45 of 100 similar matches this result is expected. It is not certainty, it is a calculated chance.
- Probability bar
- The three-colour bar shows the three results of a match: green = home win, yellow = draw, grey = away win. The slices add up to 100%; it is the model's calculation, not betting odds.
- Favourite
- The team the model gives the highest chance of winning the match. Being the favourite does not mean winning: even a 45% favourite fails to win about five of ten similar matches.
- Most likely result
- The result to which the model gives the highest percentage for the match (home win, draw or away win). For finished matches it is compared with the real result.
- Model's expectation
- The sum of the percentages given to the most likely results of the week's matches: the model expected the most likely result to happen in about this many matches.
- Expected goals
- The average total number of goals the model expects for the match (e.g. 2.6). Not an exact score, an average expectation.
- FT (full time)
- The match is over and the score is final. The percentages on the cards are the probabilities the model gave before the match; they are shown for comparison with the result.
RECORDED: THE PROBABILITY SHOWN ON THE SITE BEFORE KICK-OFF; IT NEVER CHANGES AFTERWARDS.
NOT BETTING ADVICE.