La Liga
All matches of this round are finished.
The most likely result happened in 6 of 10 matches — the model expected 5.3.
ⓘ The model gives every match three probabilities (home / draw / away). The favourite is the side with the highest chance of winning; even a 45% favourite fails to win about 5 of 10 similar matches.
MONDAY, 26 OCTOBER
SUNDAY, 25 OCTOBER
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 56%X 28%AWAY 15%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Athletic Club 56%✓ happened
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 41%X 29%AWAY 30%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Celta de Vigo 41%· Actual: Draw 29%
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 55%X 24%AWAY 22%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Real Sociedad de Fútbol 55%✓ happened
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 66%X 19%AWAY 15%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Barcelona 66%· Actual: Real Madrid 15%
SATURDAY, 24 OCTOBER
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 64%X 22%AWAY 14%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 64%· Actual: Elche 14%
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 43%X 28%AWAY 30%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Real Racing Club de Santander 43%✓ happened
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 30%X 28%AWAY 42%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Villarreal 42%✓ happened
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 62%X 23%AWAY 15%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Club Atlético de Madrid 62%✓ happened
FRIDAY, 23 OCTOBER
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 62%X 23%AWAY 14%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Deportivo Alavés 62%· Actual: Draw 23%
What do the terms mean?Probability · Probability bar · Favourite…
- Probability
- The percentage the model gives for a result happening. “45%” = in about 45 of 100 similar matches this result is expected. It is not certainty, it is a calculated chance.
- Probability bar
- The three-colour bar shows the three results of a match: green = home win, yellow = draw, grey = away win. The slices add up to 100%; it is the model's calculation, not betting odds.
- Favourite
- The team the model gives the highest chance of winning the match. Being the favourite does not mean winning: even a 45% favourite fails to win about five of ten similar matches.
- Most likely result
- The result to which the model gives the highest percentage for the match (home win, draw or away win). For finished matches it is compared with the real result.
- Model's expectation
- The sum of the percentages given to the most likely results of the week's matches: the model expected the most likely result to happen in about this many matches.
- Expected goals
- The average total number of goals the model expects for the match (e.g. 2.6). Not an exact score, an average expectation.
- FT (full time)
- The match is over and the score is final. The percentages on the cards are the probabilities the model gave before the match; they are shown for comparison with the result.
RECORDED: THE PROBABILITY SHOWN ON THE SITE BEFORE KICK-OFF; IT NEVER CHANGES AFTERWARDS.
NOT BETTING ADVICE.