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Serie A24 Oct 16:00 TRTREFEREE · KEVIN BONACINA

Cagliari Calcio×Bologna FC 1909

MATCH FINISHEDCagliari Calcio 0–2 Bologna FC 1909HT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 15:54 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Cagliari Calcio: 33.0%fair odds 3.03
  • FT X · draw: 31.3%fair odds 3.19
  • FT 2 · Bologna FC 1909: 35.7%fair odds 2.80

Double chance

  • 1X · Cagliari Calcio doesn't lose:
    64.3%fair odds 1.56
    X2 · Bologna FC 1909 doesn't lose:
    67.0%fair odds 1.49
    12 · no draw:
    68.7%fair odds 1.46

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    57.9%fair odds 1.73
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    42.1%fair odds 2.37

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    49.8%fair odds 2.01
    BTTS No:
    50.2%fair odds 1.99

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    35.8%fair odds 2.80
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    64.2%fair odds 1.56

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Cagliari CalcioBologna FC 1909
  1. 32'Yellow card: Federico Bernardeschi
  2. Yellow card: Zé Pedro38'
  3. Yellow card: Roberto Gagliardini55'
  4. 57'Goal: Nicolo Casaleassist Juan Miranda
  5. Yellow card: Alessandro Deiola77'
  6. 80'Goal: Federico Bernardeschipenalty

Statistics

Cagliari CalcioBologna FC 1909
4Shotsadvantaged: 10
1Shots on targetadvantaged: 5
1Cornersadvantaged: 6
advantaged: %57Possession%43
25Fouls13
0.24Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 1.78

Shot map

Cagliari Calcio

4 shots · 0 goals · xG 0.24

Bologna FC 1909

10 shots · 2 goals · xG 1.78

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Cagliari Calcio4-3-2-1

  1. 1Elia Caprile
  2. 2Juan Rodríguez
  3. 3Alessandro Deiola
  4. 4Adam Obert
  5. 5Zé Pedro
  6. 6Harry Winks
  7. 7Michel Adopo
  8. 8Alessandro Romano
  9. 9Paul Mendy
  10. 10Daniel Maldini
  11. 11Yanis Massolin

Bologna FC 19093-4-3

  1. 1Lukasz Skorupski
  2. 2Nicolo Casale
  3. 3Arthur Theate
  4. 4Matteo Darmian
  5. 5Tommaso Pobega
  6. 6Lewis Ferguson
  7. 7Juan Miranda
  8. 8Nadir Zortea
  9. 9Jens Odgaard
  10. 10Nicolò Cambiaghi
  11. 11Federico Bernardeschi

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultBologna FC 1909 win%36it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%58it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%50it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.16–1.21 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.20–1.52 · score: 0–2

Form and standings

Cagliari CalcioBologna FC 1909
League tableadvantaged: 8. place 13 pts · 4W 1D 2L 15. place 5 pts · 1W 2D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LDWWW2.0 pts/matchLWDLD1.0 pts/match

Goals

Cagliari CalcioBologna FC 1909
Expected goals1.16advantaged: 1.21

Match total 2.4

Clean sheetadvantaged: 2/50/5
Luck+5.0 puan−5.2 puan

Players

Cagliari CalcioBologna FC 1909
Starting XI · official4-3-2-13-4-3
ScorerDaniel Maldini4 goalsArtem Dovbyk1 goals
Most dangerousDaniel Maldiniexpected goals 2.4Federico Bernardeschiexpected goals 0.8
Finisher——
GoalkeeperElia Caprileconceded 3.1 goals fewer than expectedLukasz Skorupskiconceded 0.8 goals more than expected
Most cardsAlessandro Deiola3 yellowOussama El Azzouzi2 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

Cagliari CalcioBologna FC 1909
RefereeKevin Bonacina

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity1/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF CAGLIARI CALCIO

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,22
  • Bologna FC 1909's attack is %7 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Cagliari Calcio -0,12, Bologna FC 1909 -0,44

IN FAVOUR OF BOLOGNA FC 1909

  • Cagliari Calcio's attack is %13 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Cagliari Calcio concedes %5 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1448 – 1506: Bologna FC 1909 ahead by 58 points — effect on expected goals %3Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.