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Serie A24 Oct 16:00 TRT

Como 1907×US Sassuolo Calcio

MATCH FINISHEDComo 1907 2–0 Sassuolo CalcioHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 15:55 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Como 1907: 66.2%fair odds 1.51
  • FT X · draw: 21.1%fair odds 4.74
  • FT 2 · Sassuolo Calcio: 12.7%fair odds 7.86

Double chance

  • 1X · Como 1907 doesn't lose:
    87.3%fair odds 1.15
    X2 · Sassuolo Calcio doesn't lose:
    33.8%fair odds 2.96
    12 · no draw:
    78.9%fair odds 1.27

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    40.0%fair odds 2.50
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    60.0%fair odds 1.67

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    53.8%fair odds 1.86
    BTTS No:
    46.2%fair odds 2.16

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    26.0%fair odds 3.85
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    74.0%fair odds 1.35

ANALYSES

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultComo 1907 win%66it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%40most likely: 3 or more goals %60
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%46most likely: Both teams score %54

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.21–0.89 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.98–0.24 · score: 2–0

Form and standings

Como 1907Sassuolo Calcio
League tableadvantaged: 5. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 1L 13. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 3L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WDLWW2.0 pts/matchLDLWD1.0 pts/match

Goals

Como 1907Sassuolo Calcio
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.210.89

Match total 3.1

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck+2.1 puan−1.3 puan

Players

Como 1907Sassuolo Calcio
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerAnastasios Douvikas3 goalsVasilije Adzic3 goals
Most dangerousTasos Douvikasexpected goals 3.7Armand Laurienteexpected goals 1.6
FinisherNico Paz−0.1 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperJean Butezconceded 1.3 goals fewer than expectedArijanet Muricconceded 0.4 goals more than expected
Most cardsAssane Diao2 yellowLuca Lipani2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity10/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF COMO 1907

  • Como 1907's attack is %27 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Como 1907 concedes %18 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1640 – 1491: Como 1907 ahead by 149 points — effect on expected goals %7Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Sassuolo Calcio concedes %11 more goals than the league average
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,22
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Como 1907 +0,68, Sassuolo Calcio -0,48

IN FAVOUR OF SASSUOLO CALCIO

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.