Skip to content
Serie A25 Oct 17:00 TRTREFEREE · SIMONE SOZZA

Genoa CFC×Venezia FC

MATCH FINISHEDGenoa 1–0 VeneziaHT 1–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 16:58 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Genoa: 46.5%fair odds 2.15
  • FT X · draw: 29.3%fair odds 3.42
  • FT 2 · Venezia: 24.3%fair odds 4.12

Double chance

  • 1X · Genoa doesn't lose:
    75.7%fair odds 1.32
    X2 · Venezia doesn't lose:
    53.5%fair odds 1.87
    12 · no draw:
    70.7%fair odds 1.41

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    54.1%fair odds 1.85
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    45.9%fair odds 2.18

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    51.1%fair odds 1.96
    BTTS No:
    48.9%fair odds 2.05

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    33.6%fair odds 2.97
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    66.4%fair odds 1.51

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

GenoaVenezia
  1. Goal: Mikael Ellertssonassist Stephan El Shaarawy25'
  2. Yellow card: Sebastian Otoa55'

Statistics

GenoaVenezia
7Shotsadvantaged: 19
4Shots on targetadvantaged: 5
2Cornersadvantaged: 10
%45Possessionadvantaged: %55
13Fouls11
0.78Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 1.66

Shot map

Genoa

7 shots · 1 goals · xG 0.78

Venezia

19 shots · 0 goals · xG 1.66

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Genoa3-4-2-1

  1. 1Justin Bijlow
  2. 2Leo Østigard
  3. 3Johan Vásquez
  4. 4Sebastian Otoa
  5. 5Samuel Wiafe
  6. 6Hamed Traoré
  7. 7Mario Mitaj
  8. 8Mikael Ellertsson
  9. 9Milutin Osmajic
  10. 10Stephan El Shaarawy
  11. 11Junior Messias

Venezia3-5-2

  1. 1Filip Stankovic
  2. 2Matías Moreno
  3. 3Juan Jesus
  4. 4Redouane Halhal
  5. 5Toma Basic
  6. 6Enrique Perez
  7. 7Simon Sohm
  8. 8Ridgeciano Haps
  9. 9Antoine Hainaut
  10. 10Akor Adams
  11. 11John Yeboah

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultGenoa win%46it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%54it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%49most likely: Both teams score %51

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.49–1.02 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.67–1.43 · score: 1–0

Form and standings

GenoaVenezia
League tableadvantaged: 17. place 4 pts · 1W 1D 5L 20. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 6L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LWLDL0.8 pts/matchWLLLL0.6 pts/match

Goals

GenoaVenezia
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.491.02

Match total 2.5

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck−3.2 puan−4.0 puan

Players

GenoaVenezia
Starting XI · official3-4-2-13-5-2
ScorerMilutin Osmajic3 goalsAntoine Hainaut2 goals
Most dangerousMilutin Osmajicexpected goals 1.6John Yeboahexpected goals 3.3
Finisher—Akor Adams−0.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperJustin Bijlowconceded 4.4 goals more than expectedFilip Stankovicconceded 1.6 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsJohan Vásquez3 yellow, 1 redEnrique Perez3 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

GenoaVenezia
RefereeSimone Sozza

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity4/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF GENOA

  • Venezia concedes %21 more goals than the league average
  • Venezia's attack is %15 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,23
  • Strength rating 1430 – 1380: Genoa ahead by 50 points — effect on expected goals %3Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Genoa -0,27, Venezia -0,7

IN FAVOUR OF VENEZIA

  • Genoa's attack is %14 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.