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TRACK RECORD

How well did our predictions hold up?

We compare the percentages we gave on matches played in the last 8 months with the real results; the report is refreshed every Monday. The number in the table is an error score: the lower it is, the closer our percentages are to reality.

green: better than writing down the league's past average · yellow: only better than a coin toss (equal chance for every result) · red: worse than a coin toss too

Past results league by league →Details in the guide →
What do the terms mean?Error score · League avg. · Coin toss…
Error score
In statistics the “Brier score”: the average gap between the percentages we gave and the real result. 0 = perfect, low = good. On the match result, saying 33% for every result scores 0.667.
League avg.
The real benchmark: the error score of a simple prediction that writes the league's past result distribution for every match. If our score is below it, judging every match separately is working.
Coin toss
An easier bar: equal chance (33%) for every result on the match result, 50%-50% on two-way probabilities. The error scores are 0.667 and 0.500.
Confidently wrong
Log-loss. It measures error but punishes being very confident and wrong more heavily; again low = good.
Green · yellow · red
Green: better than the league average. Yellow: only better than a coin toss. Red: worse than a coin toss.
GLASS-BOX MODEL·GENERATED AUTOMATICALLY, NEVER EDITED BY HAND

2026-W44 — OVERVIEW

Total matches

1122

last 8 months

Error · Match result

0.595

league avg. 0.641 · coin toss 0.667

Error · 3+ goals

0.477

league avg. 0.486 · coin toss 0.500

Error · Both teams score

0.487

league avg. 0.486 · coin toss 0.500

ERROR SCORES LEAGUE BY LEAGUE

  • PLPremier League

    183 matches

    Match result
    0.614league avg. 0.655
    3+ goals
    0.489league avg. 0.492
    Both teams score
    0.492league avg. 0.495

    Confidently wrong: 0.796

  • PDLa Liga

    224 matches

    Match result
    0.588league avg. 0.633
    3+ goals
    0.475league avg. 0.499
    Both teams score
    0.477league avg. 0.481

    Confidently wrong: 0.776

  • SASerie A

    194 matches

    Match result
    0.574league avg. 0.637
    3+ goals
    0.498league avg. 0.500
    Both teams score
    0.497league avg. 0.500

    Confidently wrong: 0.783

  • BL1Bundesliga

    160 matches

    Match result
    0.588league avg. 0.648
    3+ goals
    0.440league avg. 0.447
    Both teams score
    0.464league avg. 0.462

    Confidently wrong: 0.758

  • FL1Ligue 1

    162 matches

    Match result
    0.607league avg. 0.654
    3+ goals
    0.480league avg. 0.485
    Both teams score
    0.484league avg. 0.487

    Confidently wrong: 0.787

  • CLChampions League

    25 matches

    Match result
    0.581league avg. 0.602
    3+ goals
    0.486league avg. 0.461
    Both teams score
    0.447league avg. 0.435

    Confidently wrong: 0.766

  • TR1Süper Lig

    174 matches

    Match result
    0.607league avg. 0.629
    3+ goals
    0.478league avg. 0.489
    Both teams score
    0.515league avg. 0.499

    Confidently wrong: 0.798

The real benchmark is “league avg.”: a simple prediction that writes the league's past result distribution for every match. Only if we are below this value does judging every match separately add anything. A coin toss (33-33-33% on the match result → 0.667, 50-50% on the other two → 0.500) is an easier bar.

HOW IS IT CALCULATED?

Every Monday the system takes the matches played in the last 8 months and, for each, recalculates which percentages we would have given using data known before that match (nothing from after the match is used, so the result is never “cheated” on). The error score (Brier score) is found like this: for each result, the square of the gap between the percentage we gave and what actually happened (happened = 1, didn't = 0) is summed and averaged over all matches; 0 is perfect. A coin toss scores 0.667 on the match result and 0.500 on two-way probabilities. How we calculate and past results league by league for details.

Report generated: 26 Oct 2026, 14:17