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Serie A23 Oct 21:45 TRT

Torino FC×AC Monza

MATCH FINISHEDTorino 3–2 MonzaHT 1–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (23 Oct 19:41 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Torino: 52.1%fair odds 1.92
  • FT X · draw: 26.7%fair odds 3.74
  • FT 2 · Monza: 21.1%fair odds 4.74

Double chance

  • 1X · Torino doesn't lose:
    78.9%fair odds 1.27
    X2 · Monza doesn't lose:
    47.9%fair odds 2.09
    12 · no draw:
    73.3%fair odds 1.37

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    48.0%fair odds 2.08
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    52.0%fair odds 1.92

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    54.3%fair odds 1.84
    BTTS No:
    45.7%fair odds 2.19

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    30.3%fair odds 3.30
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    69.7%fair odds 1.43

ANALYSES

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultTorino win%52it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%52it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%54it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.72–1.03 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.22–0.37 · score: 3–2

Form and standings

TorinoMonza
League tableadvantaged: 10. place 10 pts · 3W 1D 3L 14. place 7 pts · 2W 1D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWDLW2.0 pts/matchWLWLD1.4 pts/match

Goals

TorinoMonza
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.721.03

Match total 2.8

Clean sheet1/51/5
Luck+0.9 puan−3.2 puan

Players

TorinoMonza
Starting XI · official3-1-4-23-4-2-1
ScorerChé Adams3 goalsGustavo Varela6 goals
Most dangerousChe Adamsexpected goals 1.5Gustavo Varelaexpected goals 2.7
Finisher—Gustavo Varela+3.0 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperLucas Perriconceded 1.3 goals more than expectedNoel Törnqvistconceded 2.9 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsAdrian Ismajli1 yellowLorenzo Lucchesi2 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity6/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF TORINO

  • Monza concedes %24 more goals than the league average
  • Monza's attack is %17 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,22
  • Strength rating 1472 – 1360: Torino ahead by 112 points — effect on expected goals %6Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF MONZA

  • Torino concedes %6 more goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.