Skip to content
Serie A25 Oct 17:00 TRTREFEREE · LIVIO MARINELLI

Atalanta BC×Frosinone Calcio

MATCH FINISHEDAtalanta 4–4 Frosinone CalcioHT 3–2

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 16:58 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Atalanta: 45.3%fair odds 2.21
  • FT X · draw: 25.9%fair odds 3.87
  • FT 2 · Frosinone Calcio: 28.8%fair odds 3.47

Double chance

  • 1X · Atalanta doesn't lose:
    71.2%fair odds 1.41
    X2 · Frosinone Calcio doesn't lose:
    54.7%fair odds 1.83
    12 · no draw:
    74.1%fair odds 1.35

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    38.9%fair odds 2.57
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    61.1%fair odds 1.64

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    63.6%fair odds 1.57
    BTTS No:
    36.4%fair odds 2.75

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    25.7%fair odds 3.89
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    74.3%fair odds 1.35

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

AtalantaFrosinone Calcio
  1. 1'Goal: Romano Schmid
  2. 7'Yellow card: Gabriele Bracaglia
  3. Goal: Nikola Krstovicassist Charles De Ketelaere14'
  4. 17'Goal: Romano Schmidassist Farès Ghedjemis
  5. 28'Yellow card: Giorgi Kvernadze
  6. Goal: Édersonpenalty33'
  7. Goal: Nikola Krstovicassist Davide Zappacosta45'
  8. 48'Goal: Giacomo Caloassist Farès Ghedjemis
  9. Goal: Eljif Elmasassist Nikola Krstovic50'
  10. Yellow card: Éderson69'
  11. 82'Goal: Aleksa Terzicassist Farès Ghedjemis
  12. 85'Yellow card: Aleksa Terzic
  13. 90+2'Yellow card: Antonio Raimondo

Statistics

AtalantaFrosinone Calcio
22Shotsadvantaged: 24
9Shots on targetadvantaged: 10
8Cornersadvantaged: 9
%47Possessionadvantaged: %54
7Fouls13
advantaged: 4.34Expected goals (xG)1.52

Shot map

Atalanta

22 shots · 4 goals · xG 4.34

Frosinone Calcio

24 shots · 4 goals · xG 1.52

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Atalanta4-2-3-1

  1. 1Marco Carnesecchi
  2. 2Relja Obric
  3. 3Thomas Kristensen
  4. 4Davide Zappacosta
  5. 5Raoul Bellanova
  6. 6Charles De Ketelaere
  7. 7Éderson
  8. 8Gianluca Gaetano
  9. 9Nikola Krstovic
  10. 10Jon Rowe
  11. 11Eljif Elmas

Frosinone Calcio4-2-3-1

  1. 1Lorenzo Palmisani
  2. 2Giorgio Cittadini
  3. 3Gabriele Calvani
  4. 4Gabriele Bracaglia
  5. 5Anthony Oyono
  6. 6Romano Schmid
  7. 7Patrizio Masini
  8. 8Giacomo Calo
  9. 9Antonio Raimondo
  10. 10Giorgi Kvernadze
  11. 11Farès Ghedjemis

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultDraw%26most likely: Atalanta win %45
3+ goals?3 or more goals%61it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%64it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.77–1.39 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 3.71–1.30 · score: 4–4

Form and standings

AtalantaFrosinone Calcio
League table11. place 9 pts · 3W 0D 4L advantaged: 6. place 13 pts · 4W 1D 2L

Form and league table favours Frosinone Calcio, the model favours Atalanta. In the 239 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 50%, the form and league table's side won 24%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesLWLLL0.6 pts/matchadvantaged: WLWDW2.0 pts/match

Goals

AtalantaFrosinone Calcio
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.771.39

Match total 3.2

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck+3.6 puan+5.5 puan

Players

AtalantaFrosinone Calcio
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerNikola Krstovic4 goalsAntonio Raimondo7 goals
Most dangerousNikola Krstovicexpected goals 3.0Antonio Raimondoexpected goals 4.4
FinisherNikola Krstovic+1.0 goals vs expectationAntonio Raimondo+2.6 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperMarco Carnesecchiconceded 1.7 goals fewer than expectedLorenzo Palmisaniconceded 4.9 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsEljif Elmas1 redGabriele Bracaglia3 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

AtalantaFrosinone Calcio
RefereeLivio Marinelli

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity4/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ATALANTA

  • Frosinone Calcio concedes %18 more goals than the league average
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,23
  • Atalanta's attack is %9 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1589 – 1528: Atalanta ahead by 60 points — effect on expected goals %3Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF FROSINONE CALCIO

  • Frosinone Calcio's attack is %10 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Atalanta -0,9, Frosinone Calcio -0,48

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.