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Serie A25 Oct 14:30 TRTREFEREE · MAURIZIO MARIANI

FC Internazionale Milano×ACF Fiorentina

MATCH FINISHEDInternazionale Milano 2–1 ACF FiorentinaHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 14:14 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Internazionale Milano: 74.1%fair odds 1.35
  • FT X · draw: 16.9%fair odds 5.92
  • FT 2 · ACF Fiorentina: 9.0%fair odds 11.10

Double chance

  • 1X · Internazionale Milano doesn't lose:
    91.0%fair odds 1.10
    X2 · ACF Fiorentina doesn't lose:
    25.9%fair odds 3.86
    12 · no draw:
    83.1%fair odds 1.20

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    32.6%fair odds 3.07
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    67.4%fair odds 1.48

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    54.2%fair odds 1.85
    BTTS No:
    45.8%fair odds 2.18

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    22.2%fair odds 4.50
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    77.8%fair odds 1.29

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Internazionale MilanoACF Fiorentina
  1. 65'Goal: Álex Jiménezassist Nicolò Fagioli
  2. 70'Yellow card: Viery
  3. Goal: Marcus Thuramassist Andy Diouf90+1'
  4. Goal: Piotr Zielinskipenalty90+7'

Statistics

Internazionale MilanoACF Fiorentina
advantaged: 33Shots7
advantaged: 11Shots on target2
advantaged: 6Corners1
advantaged: %63Possession%37
13Fouls14
advantaged: 2.75Expected goals (xG)0.28

Shot map

Internazionale Milano

33 shots · 2 goals · xG 2.75

ACF Fiorentina

7 shots · 1 goals · xG 0.28

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Internazionale Milano3-5-2

  1. 1Ivan Provedel
  2. 2Manuel Akanji
  3. 3Alessandro Bastoni
  4. 4Yann Bisseck
  5. 5Henrikh Mkhitaryan
  6. 6Nicolò Barella
  7. 7Hakan Çalhanoglu
  8. 8Carlos Augusto
  9. 9Andy Diouf
  10. 10Marcus Thuram
  11. 11Pio Esposito

ACF Fiorentina4-3-3

  1. 1David de Gea
  2. 2Marin Pongracic
  3. 3Radu Dragusin
  4. 4Víctor Valdepeñas
  5. 5Álex Jiménez
  6. 6Nicolò Fagioli
  7. 7Marco Brescianini
  8. 8Cher Ndour
  9. 9Mateo Pellegrino
  10. 10Alieu Njie
  11. 11Franco Mastantuono

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultInternazionale Milano win%74it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%67it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%54it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.62–0.86 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 2.36–0.24 · score: 2–1

Form and standings

Internazionale MilanoACF Fiorentina
League tableadvantaged: 2. place 19 pts · 6W 1D 0L 18. place 4 pts · 1W 1D 5L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWDWW2.6 pts/matchLLDWL0.8 pts/match

Goals

Internazionale MilanoACF Fiorentina
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.620.86

Match total 3.5

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck+2.6 puan−4.8 puan

Players

Internazionale MilanoACF Fiorentina
Starting XI · official3-5-24-3-3
ScorerMarcus Thuram4 goalsFranco Mastantuono3 goals
Most dangerousLautaro Martínezexpected goals 4.6Franco Mastantuonoexpected goals 2.3
FinisherMarcus Thuram+0.3 goals vs expectationFranco Mastantuono+0.7 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperJosep Martínezconceded 2.0 goals more than expectedDavid de Geaconceded 3.0 goals more than expected
Most cardsLautaro Martínez2 yellowFranco Mastantuono2 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

Internazionale MilanoACF Fiorentina
RefereeMaurizio Mariani

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity10/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF INTERNAZIONALE MILANO

  • Internazionale Milano's attack is %54 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Internazionale Milano concedes %20 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1755 – 1481: Internazionale Milano ahead by 274 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,23
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Internazionale Milano +1,69, ACF Fiorentina +0,35
  • ACF Fiorentina concedes %6 more goals than the league average

IN FAVOUR OF ACF FIORENTINA

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.