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Serie A25 Oct 22:45 TRTREFEREE · MATTEO MARCENARO

Udinese Calcio×AC Milan

MATCH FINISHEDUdinese Calcio 0–2 MilanHT 0–1

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 22:27 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Udinese Calcio: 18.8%fair odds 5.32
  • FT X · draw: 26.6%fair odds 3.76
  • FT 2 · Milan: 54.6%fair odds 1.83

Double chance

  • 1X · Udinese Calcio doesn't lose:
    45.4%fair odds 2.20
    X2 · Milan doesn't lose:
    81.2%fair odds 1.23
    12 · no draw:
    73.4%fair odds 1.36

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    50.2%fair odds 1.99
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    49.8%fair odds 2.01

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    51.5%fair odds 1.94
    BTTS No:
    48.5%fair odds 2.06

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    31.4%fair odds 3.18
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    68.6%fair odds 1.46

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Udinese CalcioMilan
  1. 6'Goal: Christian Pulisicassist Luka Modric
  2. 39'Yellow card: Gonçalo Ramos
  3. Yellow card: Jesper Karlström43'
  4. 65'Goal: Omari Hutchinson
  5. 90'Yellow card: Luka Modric

Statistics

Udinese CalcioMilan
12Shotsadvantaged: 19
5Shots on targetadvantaged: 7
advantaged: 5Corners4
%40Possessionadvantaged: %60
11Fouls13
0.79Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 3.30

Shot map

Udinese Calcio

12 shots · 0 goals · xG 0.79

Milan

19 shots · 2 goals · xG 3.30

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Udinese Calcio3-4-2-1

  1. 1Maduka Okoye
  2. 2Christian Kabasele
  3. 3Matteo Palma
  4. 4James Abankwah
  5. 5Jesper Karlström
  6. 6Jakub Piotrowski
  7. 7Hassane Kamara
  8. 8Mërgim Vojvoda
  9. 9Keinan Davis
  10. 10Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
  11. 11Giorgi Chakvetadze

Milan3-4-2-1

  1. 1Mike Maignan
  2. 2Strahinja Pavlovic
  3. 3Sankhoun Diawara
  4. 4Koni De Winter
  5. 5Ardon Jashari
  6. 6Luka Modric
  7. 7Davide Bartesaghi
  8. 8Fikayo Tomori
  9. 9Gonçalo Ramos
  10. 10Christian Pulisic
  11. 11Omari Hutchinson

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultMilan win%55it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%50it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%49most likely: Both teams score %51

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 0.94–1.73 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.68–2.80 · score: 0–2

Form and standings

Udinese CalcioMilan
League table17. place 4 pts · 1W 1D 5L advantaged: 5. place 15 pts · 4W 3D 0L
Last 5 matchesLLLLL0.0 pts/matchadvantaged: WDWDD1.8 pts/match

Goals

Udinese CalcioMilan
Expected goals0.94advantaged: 1.73

Match total 2.7

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck−1.3 puan+2.7 puan

Players

Udinese CalcioMilan
Starting XI · official3-4-2-14-4-1-1
ScorerJurgen Ekkelenkamp3 goalsAdrien Rabiot4 goals
Most dangerousJurgen Ekkelenkampexpected goals 1.2Gonçalo Ramosexpected goals 4.0
Finisher—Gonçalo Ramos−1.7 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperMaduka Okoyeconceded 3.8 goals fewer than expectedMike Maignanconceded 2.4 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsJakub Piotrowski2 yellowStrahinja Pavlovic3 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

Udinese CalcioMilan
RefereeMatteo Marcenaro

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity7/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF UDINESE CALCIO

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,23

IN FAVOUR OF MILAN

  • Milan's attack is %14 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1449 – 1614: Milan ahead by 165 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Udinese Calcio concedes %13 more goals than the league average
  • Udinese Calcio's attack is %10 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Milan concedes %8 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Udinese Calcio -1,59, Milan +0,34

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.