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Serie A24 Oct 21:45 TRT

SS Lazio×Parma Calcio 1913

MATCH FINISHEDLazio 2–1 Parma Calcio 1913HT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 21:13 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Lazio: 59.6%fair odds 1.68
  • FT X · draw: 26.7%fair odds 3.75
  • FT 2 · Parma Calcio 1913: 13.7%fair odds 7.29

Double chance

  • 1X · Lazio doesn't lose:
    86.3%fair odds 1.16
    X2 · Parma Calcio 1913 doesn't lose:
    40.4%fair odds 2.47
    12 · no draw:
    73.3%fair odds 1.36

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    57.9%fair odds 1.73
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    42.1%fair odds 2.38

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    42.0%fair odds 2.38
    BTTS No:
    58.0%fair odds 1.72

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    35.6%fair odds 2.81
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    64.4%fair odds 1.55

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

LazioParma Calcio 1913
  1. Yellow card: Oliver Provstgaard30'
  2. 38'Yellow card: Vincent Sierro
  3. Goal: Kenneth Taylor50'
  4. Goal: Diego Carlosown goal58'
  5. 90+5'Goal: Simone Lontaniassist Giovanni Fabbian

Statistics

LazioParma Calcio 1913
advantaged: 21Shots10
advantaged: 5Shots on target4
advantaged: 8Corners3
advantaged: %68Possession%32
5Fouls12
advantaged: 1.67Expected goals (xG)0.95

Shot map

Lazio

21 shots · 1 goals · xG 1.67

Parma Calcio 1913

11 shots · 1 goals · xG 0.95

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Lazio4-3-3

  1. 1Christos Mandas
  2. 2Oliver Provstgaard
  3. 3Josip Sutalo
  4. 4Nuno Tavares
  5. 5Romano Floriani
  6. 6Reda Belahyane
  7. 7Kenneth Taylor
  8. 8Davide Frattesi
  9. 9Tijjani Noslin
  10. 10Mattia Zaccagni
  11. 11Gustav Isaksen

Parma Calcio 19135-3-2

  1. 1Edoardo Corvi
  2. 2Mariano Troilo
  3. 3Dominik Drobnic
  4. 4Diego Carlos
  5. 5Emanuele Valeri
  6. 6Enrico Del Prato
  7. 7Vincent Sierro
  8. 8Christian Ordoñez
  9. 9Mandela Keita
  10. 10José Romero
  11. 11El Bilal Toure

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultLazio win%60it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%42most likely: 2 or fewer goals %58
Both teams to score?Both teams score%42most likely: At least one team doesn't score %58

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.67–0.69 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.42–0.81 · score: 2–1

Form and standings

LazioParma Calcio 1913
League tableadvantaged: 2. place 19 pts · 6W 1D 0L 19. place 4 pts · 1W 1D 5L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWWDW2.6 pts/matchLLWLD0.8 pts/match

Goals

LazioParma Calcio 1913
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.670.69

Match total 2.4

Clean sheetadvantaged: 2/50/5
Luck+7.8 puan−1.7 puan

Players

LazioParma Calcio 1913
Starting XI · official4-3-33-4-2-1
ScorerDavide Frattesi3 goalsJosé Romero2 goals
Most dangerousMattia Zaccagniexpected goals 2.0Emanuele Valeriexpected goals 0.1
Finisher——
GoalkeeperChristos Mandasconceded 3.7 goals fewer than expectedEdoardo Corviconceded 1.9 goals more than expected
Most cardsMattia Zaccagni3 yellowMariano Troilo3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity8/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF LAZIO

  • Parma Calcio 1913's attack is %29 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Parma Calcio 1913 concedes %13 more goals than the league average
  • Lazio concedes %12 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1587 – 1410: Lazio ahead by 177 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,22
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Lazio +0,49, Parma Calcio 1913 -1,25

IN FAVOUR OF PARMA CALCIO 1913

  • Lazio's attack is %7 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.