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Serie A24 Oct 19:00 TRT

SSC Napoli×AS Roma

MATCH FINISHEDNapoli 3–3 RomaHT 1–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 18:25 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Napoli: 32.4%fair odds 3.09
  • FT X · draw: 30.8%fair odds 3.25
  • FT 2 · Roma: 36.8%fair odds 2.71

Double chance

  • 1X · Napoli doesn't lose:
    63.2%fair odds 1.58
    X2 · Roma doesn't lose:
    67.6%fair odds 1.48
    12 · no draw:
    69.2%fair odds 1.44

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    56.0%fair odds 1.79
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    44.0%fair odds 2.27

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    51.2%fair odds 1.95
    BTTS No:
    48.8%fair odds 2.05

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    34.7%fair odds 2.88
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    65.3%fair odds 1.53

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

NapoliRoma
  1. Yellow card: Rafa Marín4'
  2. Goal: Frank Anguissa28'
  3. 30'Yellow card: Bryan Cristante
  4. 45'Yellow card: Devyne Rensch
  5. Goal: Scott McTominayassist Matteo Politano48'
  6. 61'Yellow card: Leonardo Balerdi
  7. 69'Goal: Matìas Soulèassist Donyell Malen
  8. 74'Goal: Leonardo Balerdiassist Santiago Castro
  9. Goal: Scott McTominayassist Mathías Olivera83'
  10. 86'Yellow card: Marten de Roon
  11. 89'Goal: Leonardo Balerdiassist Wesley

Statistics

NapoliRoma
15Shotsadvantaged: 24
advantaged: 9Shots on target4
2Cornersadvantaged: 11
%40Possessionadvantaged: %61
6Fouls11
advantaged: 2.98Expected goals (xG)1.98

Shot map

Napoli

15 shots · 3 goals · xG 2.98

Roma

24 shots · 3 goals · xG 1.98

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Napoli4-3-3

  1. 1Alex Meret
  2. 2Benoît Badiashile
  3. 3Rafa Marín
  4. 4Mathías Olivera
  5. 5Giovanni Di Lorenzo
  6. 6Kevin De Bruyne
  7. 7Scott McTominay
  8. 8Frank Anguissa
  9. 9Rasmus Højlund
  10. 10Noa Lang
  11. 11Matteo Politano

Roma3-5-2

  1. 1Pierluigi Gollini
  2. 2Evan Ndicka
  3. 3Mario Hermoso
  4. 4Gianluca Mancini
  5. 5Niccolò Pisilli
  6. 6Marten de Roon
  7. 7Bryan Cristante
  8. 8Wesley
  9. 9Devyne Rensch
  10. 10Donyell Malen
  11. 11Matìas Soulè

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultDraw%31most likely: Roma win %37
3+ goals?3 or more goals%44most likely: 2 or fewer goals %56
Both teams to score?Both teams score%51it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.17–1.26 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 2.55–1.67 · score: 3–3

Form and standings

NapoliRoma
League table10. place 10 pts · 3W 1D 3L advantaged: 3. place 17 pts · 5W 2D 0L
Last 5 matchesLWDWL1.4 pts/matchadvantaged: WDDWW2.2 pts/match

Goals

NapoliRoma
Expected goals1.17advantaged: 1.26

Match total 2.4

Clean sheet2/5advantaged: 3/5
Luck−4.0 puan+2.2 puan

Players

NapoliRoma
Starting XI · official4-3-33-5-2
ScorerKevin De Bruyne3 goalsDonyell Malen6 goals
Most dangerousKevin De Bruyneexpected goals 2.6Donyell Malenexpected goals 5.5
Finisher—Donyell Malen+0.5 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperAlex Meretconceded 1.0 goals more than expectedMile Svilarconceded 0.1 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsAmir Rrahmani1 yellowDonyell Malen1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity1/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF NAPOLI

  • Napoli concedes %19 fewer goals than the league average
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,22
  • Napoli's attack is %8 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Napoli +1,26, Roma +0,86

IN FAVOUR OF ROMA

  • Roma's attack is %27 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Roma concedes %19 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1640 – 1673: Roma ahead by 33 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.