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Serie A25 Oct 20:00 TRTREFEREE · FABIO MARESCA

US Lecce×Juventus FC

MATCH FINISHEDLecce 0–2 JuventusHT 0–2

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 19:22 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Lecce: 9.8%fair odds 10.25
  • FT X · draw: 21.7%fair odds 4.61
  • FT 2 · Juventus: 68.6%fair odds 1.46

Double chance

  • 1X · Lecce doesn't lose:
    31.4%fair odds 3.18
    X2 · Juventus doesn't lose:
    90.2%fair odds 1.11
    12 · no draw:
    78.3%fair odds 1.28

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    49.5%fair odds 2.02
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    50.5%fair odds 1.98

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    43.1%fair odds 2.32
    BTTS No:
    56.9%fair odds 1.76

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    30.8%fair odds 3.25
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    69.2%fair odds 1.44

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

LecceJuventus
  1. 29'Goal: Weston McKennieassist Douglas Luiz
  2. 41'Goal: Douglas Luizassist Federico Gatti
  3. Yellow card: Kialonda Gaspar76'
  4. Red card: Kialonda Gaspar90+4'

Statistics

LecceJuventus
advantaged: 16Shots8
advantaged: 4Shots on target2
advantaged: 5Corners3
%42Possessionadvantaged: %58
10Fouls12
0.76Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 0.80

Shot map

Lecce

16 shots · 0 goals · xG 0.76

Juventus

8 shots · 2 goals · xG 0.80

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Lecce4-3-3

  1. 1Wladimiro Falcone
  2. 2Tiago Gabriel
  3. 3Kialonda Gaspar
  4. 4Antonino Gallo
  5. 5Danilo Veiga
  6. 6Oumar Ngom
  7. 7Youssef Maleh
  8. 8Mohamed Kaba
  9. 9Willem Geubbels
  10. 10Amar Ahmed
  11. 11Konan N’Dri

Juventus3-1-4-2

  1. 1Guglielmo Vicario
  2. 2Bremer
  3. 3Jhon Lucumí
  4. 4Federico Gatti
  5. 5Douglas Luiz
  6. 6Teun Koopmeiners
  7. 7Weston McKennie
  8. 8Andrea Cambiaso
  9. 9Pierre Kalulu
  10. 10Randal Kolo Muani
  11. 11Nick Woltemade

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultJuventus win%69it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%49most likely: 3 or more goals %51
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%57it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 0.66–2.04 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.65–0.68 · score: 0–2

Form and standings

LecceJuventus
League table12. place 9 pts · 3W 0D 4L advantaged: 10. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 2L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WLLWL1.2 pts/matchLDWLD1.0 pts/match

Goals

LecceJuventus
Expected goals0.66advantaged: 2.04

Match total 2.7

Clean sheet1/51/5
Luck+3.0 puan−2.7 puan

Players

LecceJuventus
Starting XI · official4-3-33-1-4-2
ScorerLassana Coulibaly2 goalsEdon Zhegrova2 goals
Most dangerousWillem Geubbelsexpected goals 2.3Randal Kolo Muaniexpected goals 2.3
FinisherWillem Geubbels−2.3 goals vs expectationRandal Kolo Muani−1.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperWladimiro Falconeconceded 4.5 goals fewer than expectedGuglielmo Vicarioconceded 3.9 goals more than expected
Most cardsDanilo Veiga3 yellowJhon Lucumí2 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

LecceJuventus
RefereeFabio Maresca

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity10/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF LECCE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,23

IN FAVOUR OF JUVENTUS

  • Juventus concedes %29 fewer goals than the league average
  • Juventus's attack is %25 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Lecce's attack is %16 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Lecce concedes %19 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1416 – 1608: Juventus ahead by 191 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Lecce -0,38, Juventus +0,92

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.