Premier League
All matches of this round are finished.
The most likely result happened in 2 of 10 matches — the model expected 4.6.
ⓘ The model gives every match three probabilities (home / draw / away). The favourite is the side with the highest chance of winning; even a 45% favourite fails to win about 5 of 10 similar matches.
SUNDAY, 25 OCTOBER
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 38%X 29%AWAY 33%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Liverpool 38%✓ happened
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 39%X 27%AWAY 34%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Crystal Palace 39%· Actual: Newcastle United 34%
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 46%X 27%AWAY 27%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Manchester United 46%· Actual: Bournemouth 27%
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 33%X 29%AWAY 38%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Brentford 38%· Actual: Draw 29%
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 30%X 29%AWAY 41%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Leeds United 41%· Actual: Draw 29%
SATURDAY, 24 OCTOBER
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 23%X 26%AWAY 51%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Manchester City 51%· Actual: Aston Villa 23%
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 68%X 21%AWAY 11%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Arsenal 68%✓ happened
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 36%X 30%AWAY 34%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Coventry City 36%· Actual: Fulham 34%
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 54%X 25%AWAY 20%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Chelsea 54%· Actual: Tottenham Hotspur 20%
FRIDAY, 23 OCTOBER
- FULL TIMESUMMARY →HOME 21%X 27%AWAY 52%
MATCH RESULT · RECORDEDMost likely: Nottingham Forest 52%· Actual: Draw 27%
What do the terms mean?Probability · Probability bar · Favourite…
- Probability
- The percentage the model gives for a result happening. “45%” = in about 45 of 100 similar matches this result is expected. It is not certainty, it is a calculated chance.
- Probability bar
- The three-colour bar shows the three results of a match: green = home win, yellow = draw, grey = away win. The slices add up to 100%; it is the model's calculation, not betting odds.
- Favourite
- The team the model gives the highest chance of winning the match. Being the favourite does not mean winning: even a 45% favourite fails to win about five of ten similar matches.
- Most likely result
- The result to which the model gives the highest percentage for the match (home win, draw or away win). For finished matches it is compared with the real result.
- Model's expectation
- The sum of the percentages given to the most likely results of the week's matches: the model expected the most likely result to happen in about this many matches.
- Expected goals
- The average total number of goals the model expects for the match (e.g. 2.6). Not an exact score, an average expectation.
- FT (full time)
- The match is over and the score is final. The percentages on the cards are the probabilities the model gave before the match; they are shown for comparison with the result.
RECORDED: THE PROBABILITY SHOWN ON THE SITE BEFORE KICK-OFF; IT NEVER CHANGES AFTERWARDS.
NOT BETTING ADVICE.