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La Liga25 Oct 18:15 TRTREFEREE · ISIDRO DÍAZ DE MERA

RC Celta de Vigo×Real Betis Balompié

MATCH FINISHEDCelta de Vigo 0–0 Real Betis BalompiéHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 18:05 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Celta de Vigo: 41.3%fair odds 2.42
  • FT X · draw: 29.1%fair odds 3.43
  • FT 2 · Real Betis Balompié: 29.5%fair odds 3.38

Double chance

  • 1X · Celta de Vigo doesn't lose:
    70.5%fair odds 1.42
    X2 · Real Betis Balompié doesn't lose:
    58.7%fair odds 1.70
    12 · no draw:
    70.9%fair odds 1.41

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    51.0%fair odds 1.96
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    49.0%fair odds 2.04

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    54.8%fair odds 1.83
    BTTS No:
    45.2%fair odds 2.21

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    31.9%fair odds 3.13
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    68.1%fair odds 1.47

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Celta de VigoReal Betis Balompié
  1. Yellow card: Ilaix Moriba30'
  2. 43'Yellow card: Diego Llorente
  3. Yellow card: Sergio Carreira80'

Statistics

Celta de VigoReal Betis Balompié
12Shotsadvantaged: 15
advantaged: 4Shots on target2
3Cornersadvantaged: 4
%44Possessionadvantaged: %57
9Fouls12
0.80Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 1.07

Shot map

Celta de Vigo

12 shots · 0 goals · xG 0.80

Real Betis Balompié

15 shots · 0 goals · xG 1.07

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Celta de Vigo3-4-3

  1. 1Andrei Radu
  2. 2Yoel Lago
  3. 3Marcos Alonso
  4. 4Javi Rodríguez
  5. 5Aleix Febas
  6. 6Ilaix Moriba
  7. 7Javi Galán
  8. 8Javi Rueda
  9. 9Pablo Durán
  10. 10Hugo Álvarez
  11. 11Hugo Gonzalez

Real Betis Balompié4-2-3-1

  1. 1Álvaro Valles
  2. 2Natan
  3. 3Diego Llorente
  4. 4Valentín Gómez
  5. 5Ángel Ortiz
  6. 6Isco
  7. 7Dani Ceballos
  8. 8Marc Roca
  9. 9Nelson Deossa
  10. 10Abde Ezzalzouli
  11. 11Antony

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultDraw%29most likely: Celta de Vigo win %41
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%51it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%45most likely: Both teams score %55

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.44–1.19 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.73–0.98 · score: 0–0

Form and standings

Celta de VigoReal Betis Balompié
League table10. place 11 pts · 2W 5D 2L advantaged: 4. place 19 pts · 6W 1D 2L

League table favours Real Betis Balompié, the model favours Celta de Vigo. In the 155 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 50%, the league table's side won 25%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesWDWDD1.8 pts/matchadvantaged: LWDWW2.0 pts/match

Goals

Celta de VigoReal Betis Balompié
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.441.19

Match total 2.6

Clean sheetadvantaged: 2/51/5
Luck+0.3 puan+6.6 puan

Players

Celta de VigoReal Betis Balompié
Starting XI · official3-4-34-2-3-1
ScorerFerran Jutglà2 goalsAbde Ezzalzouli3 goals
Most dangerousHugo Gonzalezexpected goals 1.3Juan Camilo Hernándezexpected goals 2.2
Finisher—Juan Camilo Hernández−0.2 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperIonut Raduconceded 1.5 goals fewer than expectedÁlvaro Vallésconceded 3.0 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsMarcos Alonso2 yellow, 1 redFacundo Bernal1 yellow, 1 red

Cards, corners, referee, workload

Celta de VigoReal Betis Balompié
RefereeIsidro Díaz de Mera

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity3/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF CELTA DE VIGO

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,17
  • Celta de Vigo concedes %8 fewer goals than the league average

IN FAVOUR OF REAL BETIS BALOMPIÉ

  • Celta de Vigo's attack is %9 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Real Betis Balompié's attack is %9 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1518 – 1579: Real Betis Balompié ahead by 61 points — effect on expected goals %3Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Celta de Vigo +0,34, Real Betis Balompié +0,68

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.