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La Liga24 Oct 15:00 TRT

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid×Elche CF

MATCH FINISHEDRayo Vallecano de Madrid 0–3 ElcheHT 0–2

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 13:12 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: 64.1%fair odds 1.56
  • FT X · draw: 21.8%fair odds 4.58
  • FT 2 · Elche: 14.0%fair odds 7.12

Double chance

  • 1X · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid doesn't lose:
    86.0%fair odds 1.16
    X2 · Elche doesn't lose:
    35.9%fair odds 2.79
    12 · no draw:
    78.2%fair odds 1.28

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    40.1%fair odds 2.50
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    59.9%fair odds 1.67

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    55.1%fair odds 1.82
    BTTS No:
    44.9%fair odds 2.23

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    26.1%fair odds 3.83
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    73.9%fair odds 1.35

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Rayo Vallecano de MadridElche
  1. 10'Yellow card: Javier Morcillo
  2. 23'Goal: Federico Redondopenalty
  3. 30'Yellow card: Gonzalo Villar
  4. 30'Yellow card: Federico Redondo
  5. Yellow card: Pathé Ciss35'
  6. 36'Goal: Fer Niñopenalty
  7. Yellow card: Adrià Pedrosa54'
  8. 68'Goal: Germán Valeraassist Facundo Buonanotte
  9. Yellow card: Álvaro García81'

Statistics

Rayo Vallecano de MadridElche
advantaged: 18Shots16
5Shots on targetadvantaged: 9
3Corners3
advantaged: %57Possession%43
15Fouls11
1.23Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 2.40

Shot map

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

18 shots · 0 goals · xG 1.23

Elche

16 shots · 3 goals · xG 2.40

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid4-2-3-1

  1. 1Emil Audero
  2. 2Mujaid Sadick
  3. 3Florian Lejeune
  4. 4Adrià Pedrosa
  5. 5Iván Balliu
  6. 6Pedro Díaz
  7. 7Unai López
  8. 8Pathé Ciss
  9. 9Sergio Camello
  10. 10Álvaro García
  11. 11Jorge de Frutos

Elche4-3-3

  1. 1Matías Dituro
  2. 2Víctor Chust
  3. 3Federico Redondo
  4. 4Roy Revivo
  5. 5Buba Sangaré
  6. 6Javier Morcillo
  7. 7Thomas Lemar
  8. 8Gonzalo Villar
  9. 9Fer Niño
  10. 10Germán Valera
  11. 11Lucas Cepeda

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultElche win%14most likely: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win %64
3+ goals?3 or more goals%60it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%45most likely: Both teams score %55

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.16–0.94 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.13–2.20 · score: 0–3

Form and standings

Rayo Vallecano de MadridElche
League tableadvantaged: 14. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 3L 18. place 7 pts · 1W 4D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: DDWLW1.6 pts/matchDDWLD1.2 pts/match

Goals

Rayo Vallecano de MadridElche
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.160.94

Match total 3.1

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck−1.0 puan−2.2 puan

Players

Rayo Vallecano de MadridElche
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-3-3
ScorerSergio Camello7 goalsFer Niño5 goals
Most dangerousSergio Camelloexpected goals 3.1Fernando Niñoexpected goals 2.7
FinisherSergio Camello+3.9 goals vs expectationFernando Niño+2.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperEmil Auderoconceded 0.9 goals more than expectedMatías Dituroconceded 1.4 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsPathé Ciss4 yellowFederico Redondo1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity9/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF RAYO VALLECANO DE MADRID

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,16
  • Elche concedes %20 more goals than the league average
  • Elche's attack is %12 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid +0,23, Elche -1,26
  • Strength rating 1511 – 1471: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid ahead by 40 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF ELCHE

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.