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La Liga25 Oct 20:30 TRTREFEREE · JAVIER ALBEROLA ROJAS

Real Sociedad de Fútbol×Levante UD

MATCH FINISHEDReal Sociedad de Fútbol 2–1 Levante UDHT 2–1

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 20:10 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Real Sociedad de Fútbol: 55.0%fair odds 1.82
  • FT X · draw: 23.5%fair odds 4.25
  • FT 2 · Levante UD: 21.5%fair odds 4.65

Double chance

  • 1X · Real Sociedad de Fútbol doesn't lose:
    78.5%fair odds 1.27
    X2 · Levante UD doesn't lose:
    45.0%fair odds 2.22
    12 · no draw:
    76.5%fair odds 1.31

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    35.5%fair odds 2.82
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    64.5%fair odds 1.55

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    63.6%fair odds 1.57
    BTTS No:
    36.4%fair odds 2.75

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    24.0%fair odds 4.17
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    76.0%fair odds 1.31

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Real Sociedad de FútbolLevante UD
  1. Goal: Orri Óskarsson6'
  2. 22'Goal: Nacho Pérezassist Thiago Fernandez
  3. Goal: Beñat Turrientesassist Gonçalo Guedes27'
  4. Yellow card: Jon Martín64'
  5. 75'Yellow card: Manu Sánchez
  6. 81'Yellow card: Yanis Kasonga Musuayi
  7. 87'Yellow card: Víctor García

Statistics

Real Sociedad de FútbolLevante UD
advantaged: 17Shots6
advantaged: 3Shots on target2
2Cornersadvantaged: 3
advantaged: %62Possession%38
14Fouls13
advantaged: 2.96Expected goals (xG)0.75

Shot map

Real Sociedad de Fútbol

17 shots · 2 goals · xG 2.96

Levante UD

6 shots · 1 goals · xG 0.75

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Real Sociedad de Fútbol4-4-2

  1. 1Álex Remiro
  2. 2Mamadou Sarr
  3. 3Jon Martín
  4. 4Sergio Gómez
  5. 5Héctor Fort
  6. 6Beñat Turrientes
  7. 7Jon Gorrotxategi
  8. 8Gonçalo Guedes
  9. 9Luka Sucic
  10. 10Orri Óskarsson
  11. 11Mikel Oyarzabal

Levante UD4-4-2

  1. 1Mathew Ryan
  2. 2Ifeanyi Ndukwe
  3. 3Aïssa Mandi
  4. 4Manu Sánchez
  5. 5Nacho Pérez
  6. 6Dani Requena
  7. 7Jon Ander Olasagasti
  8. 8Thiago Fernandez
  9. 9Roger Brugué
  10. 10Petar Ratkov
  11. 11Iván Romero

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultReal Sociedad de Fútbol win%55it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%65it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%64it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.07–1.25 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 2.66–0.69 · score: 2–1

Form and standings

Real Sociedad de FútbolLevante UD
League tableadvantaged: 5. place 16 pts · 5W 1D 3L 14. place 10 pts · 2W 4D 3L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWWLW2.4 pts/matchWDDLL1.0 pts/match

Goals

Real Sociedad de FútbolLevante UD
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.071.25

Match total 3.3

Clean sheet0/50/5
Luck+5.4 puan0.0 puan

Players

Real Sociedad de FútbolLevante UD
Starting XI · official4-4-24-4-2
ScorerLuka Sucic3 goalsRoger Brugué5 goals
Most dangerousOrri Óskarssonexpected goals 3.4Roger Bruguéexpected goals 4.0
FinisherMikel Oyarzabal−0.1 goals vs expectationRoger Brugué+1.0 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperRemiroconceded 2.2 goals fewer than expectedMat Ryanconceded 0.6 goals more than expected
Most cardsYangel Herrera4 yellowAdrián de la Fuente3 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

Real Sociedad de FútbolLevante UD
RefereeJavier Alberola Rojas

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity7/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF REAL SOCIEDAD DE FÚTBOL

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,17
  • Levante UD concedes %14 more goals than the league average
  • Real Sociedad de Fútbol's attack is %6 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Real Sociedad de Fútbol -0,55, Levante UD -1,02
  • Strength rating 1504 – 1484: Real Sociedad de Fútbol ahead by 21 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF LEVANTE UD

  • Real Sociedad de Fútbol concedes %11 more goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.