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La Liga25 Oct 16:00 TRTREFEREE · FRANCISCO HERNÁNDEZ MAESO

Athletic Club×Getafe CF

MATCH FINISHEDAthletic Club 4–0 GetafeHT 2–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 14:15 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Athletic Club: 56.0%fair odds 1.78
  • FT X · draw: 28.5%fair odds 3.51
  • FT 2 · Getafe: 15.5%fair odds 6.47

Double chance

  • 1X · Athletic Club doesn't lose:
    84.5%fair odds 1.18
    X2 · Getafe doesn't lose:
    44.0%fair odds 2.27
    12 · no draw:
    71.5%fair odds 1.40

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    60.8%fair odds 1.64
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    39.2%fair odds 2.55

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    41.4%fair odds 2.42
    BTTS No:
    58.6%fair odds 1.71

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    37.3%fair odds 2.68
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    62.7%fair odds 1.60

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Athletic ClubGetafe
  1. Goal: Álex Berenguer17'
  2. Goal: Iñaki Williamsassist Álex Berenguer35'
  3. 39'Yellow card: Ramón Terrats
  4. 43'Yellow card: Dani Carvajal
  5. 63'Yellow card: Johan Mojica
  6. Goal: Aitor Paredesassist Álex Berenguer70'
  7. Yellow card: Beñat Gerenabarrena72'
  8. 86'Red card: Mario Martín
  9. Goal: Yuri Berchicheassist Álex Berenguer88'

Statistics

Athletic ClubGetafe
advantaged: 11Shots7
advantaged: 4Shots on target1
2Cornersadvantaged: 4
advantaged: %63Possession%38
11Fouls15
advantaged: 0.70Expected goals (xG)0.35

Shot map

Athletic Club

11 shots · 4 goals · xG 0.70

Getafe

7 shots · 0 goals · xG 0.35

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Athletic Club4-2-3-1

  1. 1Unai Simón
  2. 2Aitor Paredes
  3. 3Dani Vivian
  4. 4Yuri Berchiche
  5. 5Hugo Rincón
  6. 6Álex Berenguer
  7. 7Peio Canales
  8. 8Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
  9. 9Maroan Sannadi
  10. 10Nico Williams
  11. 11Iñaki Williams

Getafe5-4-1

  1. 1David Soria
  2. 2Nemanja Gudelj
  3. 3Jean Ives Valou
  4. 4Dani Carvajal
  5. 5Johan Mojica
  6. 6Kiko Femenía
  7. 7Mario Martín
  8. 8Francho Serrano
  9. 9Martín Satriano
  10. 10Ramón Terrats
  11. 11Ivan Azón

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultAthletic Club win%56it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%39most likely: 2 or fewer goals %61
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%59it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.55–0.71 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.64–0.32 · score: 4–0

Form and standings

Athletic ClubGetafe
League tableadvantaged: 15. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 3L 16. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LDDDW1.2 pts/matchDLWLD1.0 pts/match

Goals

Athletic ClubGetafe
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.550.71

Match total 2.3

Clean sheetadvantaged: 3/51/5
Luck−4.1 puan+1.4 puan

Players

Athletic ClubGetafe
Starting XI · official4-2-3-15-4-1
ScorerÁlex Berenguer2 goalsMartín Satriano2 goals
Most dangerousOihan Sancetexpected goals 2.4Martín Satrianoexpected goals 2.1
FinisherIñaki Williams−1.3 goals vs expectationMartín Satriano−0.1 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperUnai Simónconceded 4.0 goals fewer than expectedDavid Soriaconceded 2.0 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsYuri Berchiche3 yellow, 1 redDjené3 yellow, 1 red

Cards, corners, referee, workload

Athletic ClubGetafe
RefereeFrancisco Hernández Maeso

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity8/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ATHLETIC CLUB

  • Getafe's attack is %32 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,17
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Athletic Club +0,6, Getafe -1,17
  • Strength rating 1497 – 1471: Athletic Club ahead by 26 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF GETAFE

  • Getafe concedes %10 fewer goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.