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La Liga24 Oct 17:15 TRT

Real Racing Club de Santander×RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

MATCH FINISHEDReal Racing Club de Santander 2–1 Espanyol de BarcelonaHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 15:57 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Real Racing Club de Santander: 42.6%fair odds 2.35
  • FT X · draw: 27.9%fair odds 3.59
  • FT 2 · Espanyol de Barcelona: 29.5%fair odds 3.39

Double chance

  • 1X · Real Racing Club de Santander doesn't lose:
    70.5%fair odds 1.42
    X2 · Espanyol de Barcelona doesn't lose:
    57.4%fair odds 1.74
    12 · no draw:
    72.1%fair odds 1.39

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    46.3%fair odds 2.16
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    53.7%fair odds 1.86

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    58.3%fair odds 1.72
    BTTS No:
    41.7%fair odds 2.40

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    29.5%fair odds 3.39
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    70.5%fair odds 1.42

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Real Racing Club de SantanderEspanyol de Barcelona
  1. Yellow card: Iñigo Vicente8'
  2. 17'Yellow card: Pol Lozano
  3. 62'Goal: Edu Expósitoassist Javi Hernandez
  4. Yellow card: Pablo Ramon67'
  5. Goal: Jeanuël Belocianassist Sergio Canales69'
  6. 70'Yellow card: Urko Gonzalez
  7. Goal: Yassir Zabiriassist Alvaro Mantilla84'
  8. 89'Yellow card: Javier Puado
  9. 90'Yellow card: Edu Expósito
  10. Yellow card: Jorge Salinas90+7'

Statistics

Real Racing Club de SantanderEspanyol de Barcelona
advantaged: 23Shots11
advantaged: 9Shots on target1
advantaged: 9Corners4
advantaged: %55Possession%45
10Fouls17
advantaged: 2.89Expected goals (xG)0.58

Shot map

Real Racing Club de Santander

23 shots · 2 goals · xG 2.89

Espanyol de Barcelona

11 shots · 1 goals · xG 0.58

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Real Racing Club de Santander4-2-3-1

  1. 1Julen Agirrezabala
  2. 2Jeanuël Belocian
  3. 3Pablo Ramon
  4. 4Jorge Salinas
  5. 5Alvaro Mantilla
  6. 6Sergio Canales
  7. 7Iván Martín
  8. 8Matteo Prati
  9. 9Yassir Zabiri
  10. 10Iñigo Vicente
  11. 11Andrés Martín

Espanyol de Barcelona4-2-3-1

  1. 1Ángel Fortuño
  2. 2Leandro Cabrera
  3. 3Vanja Drkusic
  4. 4Quilindschy Hartman
  5. 5Omar El Hilali
  6. 6Cala
  7. 7Pol Lozano
  8. 8Edu Expósito
  9. 9Roberto Fernández
  10. 10Bryan Zaragoza
  11. 11Javi Hernandez

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultReal Racing Club de Santander win%43it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%54it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%58it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.56–1.27 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 2.59–0.53 · score: 2–1

Form and standings

Real Racing Club de SantanderEspanyol de Barcelona
League table18. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 5L advantaged: 17. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 5L
Last 5 matchesLDLLW0.8 pts/matchLDLLW0.8 pts/match

Goals

Real Racing Club de SantanderEspanyol de Barcelona
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.561.27

Match total 2.8

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck−1.0 puan−4.1 puan

Players

Real Racing Club de SantanderEspanyol de Barcelona
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerYassir Zabiri7 goalsRoberto Fernández6 goals
Most dangerousYassir Zabiriexpected goals 3.6Roberto Fernándezexpected goals 4.9
FinisherYassir Zabiri+3.4 goals vs expectationRoberto Fernández+1.1 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperJulen Agirrezabalaconceded 3.4 goals more than expectedMarko Dmitrovicconceded 0.1 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsJorge Salinas4 yellowOmar El Hilali2 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity4/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF REAL RACING CLUB DE SANTANDER

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,16
  • Espanyol de Barcelona's attack is %17 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1472 – 1448: Real Racing Club de Santander ahead by 24 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF ESPANYOL DE BARCELONA

  • Real Racing Club de Santander concedes %30 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Real Racing Club de Santander -2,34, Espanyol de Barcelona -0,23
  • Real Racing Club de Santander's attack is %6 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.