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La Liga24 Oct 22:00 TRTREFEREE · JOSÉ SÁNCHEZ MARTÍNEZ

Club Atlético de Madrid×RC Deportivo La Coruña

MATCH FINISHEDClub Atlético de Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La CoruñaHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 21:46 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Club Atlético de Madrid: 62.4%fair odds 1.60
  • FT X · draw: 22.8%fair odds 4.40
  • FT 2 · Deportivo La Coruña: 14.9%fair odds 6.72

Double chance

  • 1X · Club Atlético de Madrid doesn't lose:
    85.1%fair odds 1.17
    X2 · Deportivo La Coruña doesn't lose:
    37.6%fair odds 2.66
    12 · no draw:
    77.2%fair odds 1.29

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    42.0%fair odds 2.38
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    58.0%fair odds 1.72

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    54.5%fair odds 1.84
    BTTS No:
    45.5%fair odds 2.20

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.1%fair odds 3.69
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.9%fair odds 1.37

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Club Atlético de MadridDeportivo La Coruña
  1. Yellow card: Marc Pubill26'
  2. Goal: Julián Álvarezassist Alejandro Grimaldo48'
  3. 75'Yellow card: Yeremay Hernández
  4. 79'Yellow card: Giacomo Quagliata
  5. Yellow card: Alexander Sørloth85'
  6. Yellow card: Álex Baena86'
  7. Yellow card: Giuliano Simeone87'

Statistics

Club Atlético de MadridDeportivo La Coruña
advantaged: 20Shots15
4Shots on targetadvantaged: 5
3Cornersadvantaged: 4
advantaged: %56Possession%44
11Fouls6
2.22Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 2.28

Shot map

Club Atlético de Madrid

20 shots · 1 goals · xG 2.22

Deportivo La Coruña

15 shots · 0 goals · xG 2.28

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Club Atlético de Madrid4-3-3

  1. 1Jan Oblak
  2. 2Dávid Hancko
  3. 3Marc Pubill
  4. 4Alejandro Grimaldo
  5. 5Marcos Llorente
  6. 6Morten Hjulmand
  7. 7Álex Baena
  8. 8Pablo Barrios
  9. 9Julián Álvarez
  10. 10Ademola Lookman
  11. 11Lee Kang-In

Deportivo La Coruña5-3-2

  1. 1Leo Román
  2. 2José María Giménez
  3. 3Miguel Loureiro
  4. 4Adrià Altimira
  5. 5Giacomo Quagliata
  6. 6David Mella
  7. 7Lorenzo Amatucci
  8. 8Diego Villares
  9. 9Mario Soriano Carreno
  10. 10Yeremay Hernández
  11. 11Bil Nsongo

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultClub Atlético de Madrid win%62it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%42most likely: 3 or more goals %58
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%46most likely: Both teams score %54

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.08–0.94 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 2.03–2.05 · score: 1–0

Form and standings

Club Atlético de MadridDeportivo La Coruña
League tableadvantaged: 2. place 22 pts · 7W 1D 1L 10. place 11 pts · 2W 5D 2L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWWWW3.0 pts/matchDLDLD0.6 pts/match

Goals

Club Atlético de MadridDeportivo La Coruña
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.080.94

Match total 3.0

Clean sheetadvantaged: 3/50/5
Luck+5.0 puan−1.0 puan

Players

Club Atlético de MadridDeportivo La Coruña
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerÁlex Baena5 goalsPierre-Emerick Aubameyang5 goals
Most dangerousJonathan Christian Davidexpected goals 3.7Pierre-Emerick Aubameyangexpected goals 3.8
FinisherJonathan Christian David−0.7 goals vs expectationPierre-Emerick Aubameyang+2.2 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperJan Oblakconceded 1.1 goals fewer than expectedLeo Románconceded 1.0 goals more than expected
Most cardsRobin Le Normand1 yellow, 1 redLorenzo Amatucci3 yellow, 1 red

Cards, corners, referee, workload

Club Atlético de MadridDeportivo La Coruña
RefereeJosé Sánchez Martínez

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity9/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF CLUB ATLÉTICO DE MADRID

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,64 per match, away sides 1,17
  • Club Atlético de Madrid's attack is %14 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1644 – 1500: Club Atlético de Madrid ahead by 144 points — effect on expected goals %7Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Club Atlético de Madrid concedes %8 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Club Atlético de Madrid +1,99, Deportivo La Coruña +0,43

IN FAVOUR OF DEPORTIVO LA CORUÑA

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.