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La Liga23 Oct 22:00 TRT

Deportivo Alavés×Málaga CF

MATCH FINISHEDDeportivo Alavés 1–1 MálagaHT 0–1

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (23 Oct 19:45 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Deportivo Alavés: 62.4%fair odds 1.60
  • FT X · draw: 23.5%fair odds 4.26
  • FT 2 · Málaga: 14.1%fair odds 7.09

Double chance

  • 1X · Deportivo Alavés doesn't lose:
    85.9%fair odds 1.16
    X2 · Málaga doesn't lose:
    37.6%fair odds 2.66
    12 · no draw:
    76.5%fair odds 1.31

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    46.2%fair odds 2.17
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    53.8%fair odds 1.86

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    50.8%fair odds 1.97
    BTTS No:
    49.2%fair odds 2.03

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    29.2%fair odds 3.43
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    70.8%fair odds 1.41

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Deportivo AlavésMálaga
  1. Yellow card: Lucas Boyé39'
  2. 44'Goal: Adrián Niñoassist Ramón Enríquez
  3. Yellow card: Nahuel Tenaglia67'
  4. 84'Yellow card: Carlos Dotor
  5. Goal: Aitor Mañas89'

Statistics

Deportivo AlavésMálaga
advantaged: 18Shots6
advantaged: 4Shots on target3
advantaged: 7Corners2
%50Possessionadvantaged: %50
14Fouls12
advantaged: 1.83Expected goals (xG)0.81

Shot map

Deportivo Alavés

18 shots · 1 goals · xG 1.83

Málaga

7 shots · 1 goals · xG 0.81

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Deportivo Alavés5-3-2

  1. 1Antonio Sivera
  2. 2Ville Koski
  3. 3Nicolás Valentini
  4. 4Nahuel Tenaglia
  5. 5Abde Rebbach
  6. 6Ángel Pérez
  7. 7Antonio Blanco
  8. 8Carles Aleñá
  9. 9Pablo Ibáñez
  10. 10Mariano Díaz
  11. 11Lucas Boyé

Málaga4-1-4-1

  1. 1Alfonso Herrero
  2. 2Einar Galilea
  3. 3Ángel Recio
  4. 4Ramón Enríquez
  5. 5Rafa Garrido
  6. 6Carlos Puga
  7. 7Daniel Lorenzo
  8. 8Carlos Dotor
  9. 9Adam Aznou
  10. 10David Larrubia
  11. 11Adrián Niño

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultDraw%23most likely: Deportivo Alavés win %62
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%46most likely: 3 or more goals %54
Both teams to score?Both teams score%51it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.98–0.85 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.65–0.74 · score: 1–1

Form and standings

Deportivo AlavésMálaga
League tableadvantaged: 7. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 4L 20. place 4 pts · 0W 4D 5L
Last 5 matchesLLDLL0.2 pts/matchadvantaged: LDLLD0.4 pts/match

Goals

Deportivo AlavésMálaga
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.980.85

Match total 2.8

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck−3.0 puan−3.2 puan

Players

Deportivo AlavésMálaga
Starting XI · official5-3-24-1-4-1
ScorerLucas Boyé5 goalsAdrián Niño3 goals
Most dangerousÁngel Pérezexpected goals 1.1Chupeexpected goals 2.8
FinisherLucas Boyé+1.9 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperAntonio Siveraconceded 1.0 goals more than expectedAlfonso Herreroconceded 0.2 goals more than expected
Most cardsAbde Rebbach3 yellowCarlos Puga3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity9/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,16
  • Málaga's attack is %19 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Málaga concedes %16 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Deportivo Alavés -0,13, Málaga -1,34
  • Strength rating 1463 – 1453: Deportivo Alavés ahead by 10 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF MÁLAGA

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.