Skip to content
La Liga25 Oct 23:00 TRTREFEREE · JUAN MARTÍNEZ MUNUERA

FC Barcelona×Real Madrid CF

MATCH FINISHEDBarcelona 1–2 Real MadridHT 0–1

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 22:28 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Barcelona: 66.2%fair odds 1.51
  • FT X · draw: 19.1%fair odds 5.23
  • FT 2 · Real Madrid: 14.7%fair odds 6.83

Double chance

  • 1X · Barcelona doesn't lose:
    85.3%fair odds 1.17
    X2 · Real Madrid doesn't lose:
    33.8%fair odds 2.96
    12 · no draw:
    80.9%fair odds 1.24

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    28.2%fair odds 3.55
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    71.8%fair odds 1.39

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    64.6%fair odds 1.55
    BTTS No:
    35.4%fair odds 2.82

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    20.2%fair odds 4.95
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    79.8%fair odds 1.25

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

BarcelonaReal Madrid
  1. 41'Goal: Kylian Mbappé
  2. 46'Yellow card: Aurélien Tchouaméni
  3. Goal: Raphinhaassist Pedri61'
  4. Yellow card: Anthony Gordon84'
  5. 87'Goal: Kylian Mbappéassist Eduardo Camavinga
  6. 90+2'Yellow card: Marc Cucurella
  7. 90+4'Yellow card: Kylian Mbappé
  8. Yellow card: Karim Adeyemi90+6'
  9. Yellow card: Alejandro Balde90+6'

Statistics

BarcelonaReal Madrid
advantaged: 18Shots10
advantaged: 6Shots on target5
6Corners6
advantaged: %62Possession%38
15Fouls11
1.64Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 1.95

Shot map

Barcelona

18 shots · 1 goals · xG 1.64

Real Madrid

10 shots · 2 goals · xG 1.95

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Barcelona4-3-3

  1. 1Joan García
  2. 2Gerard Martín
  3. 3Pau Cubarsí
  4. 4João Cancelo
  5. 5Xavi Espart
  6. 6Rodri
  7. 7Pedri
  8. 8Fermín López
  9. 9Raphinha
  10. 10Anthony Gordon
  11. 11Lamine Yamal

Real Madrid4-2-3-1

  1. 1Andriy Lunin
  2. 2Dean Huijsen
  3. 3Ibrahima Konaté
  4. 4Marc Cucurella
  5. 5Federico Valverde
  6. 6Jude Bellingham
  7. 7Aurélien Tchouaméni
  8. 8Bernardo Silva
  9. 9Kylian Mbappé
  10. 10Yan Diomande
  11. 11Arda Güler

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultReal Madrid win%15most likely: Barcelona win %66
3+ goals?3 or more goals%72it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%65it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.55–1.17 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.49–1.77 · score: 1–2

Form and standings

BarcelonaReal Madrid
League tableadvantaged: 1. place 27 pts · 9W 0D 0L 3. place 21 pts · 7W 0D 2L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWWWW3.0 pts/matchWWLWW2.4 pts/match

Goals

BarcelonaReal Madrid
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.551.17

Match total 3.7

Clean sheet1/51/5
Luck+3.5 puan+0.9 puan

Players

BarcelonaReal Madrid
Starting XI · official4-3-34-4-2
ScorerRaphinha12 goalsKylian Mbappé9 goals
Most dangerousLamine Yamalexpected goals 6.0Kylian Mbappe-Lottinexpected goals 9.9
FinisherRaphinha+2.7 goals vs expectationKylian Mbappe-Lottin−0.9 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperJoan Garcíaconceded 1.1 goals fewer than expectedThibaut Courtoisconceded 0.8 goals more than expected
Most cardsFermín López3 yellowVinícius Júnior2 yellow, 1 red

Cards, corners, referee, workload

BarcelonaReal Madrid
RefereeJuan Martínez Munuera

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity9/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF BARCELONA

  • Barcelona's attack is %73 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,17
  • Barcelona concedes %18 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Barcelona +2,66, Real Madrid +0,81
  • Strength rating 1806 – 1714: Barcelona ahead by 92 points — effect on expected goals %5Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF REAL MADRID

  • Real Madrid's attack is %33 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Real Madrid concedes %20 fewer goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.