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La Liga26 Oct 23:00 TRT

Sevilla FC×CA Osasuna

MATCH FINISHEDSevilla 2–0 CA OsasunaHT 1–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (26 Oct 20:58 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Sevilla: 41.1%fair odds 2.43
  • FT X · draw: 30.0%fair odds 3.33
  • FT 2 · CA Osasuna: 28.9%fair odds 3.46

Double chance

  • 1X · Sevilla doesn't lose:
    71.1%fair odds 1.41
    X2 · CA Osasuna doesn't lose:
    58.9%fair odds 1.70
    12 · no draw:
    70.0%fair odds 1.43

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    54.4%fair odds 1.84
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    45.6%fair odds 2.19

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    52.1%fair odds 1.92
    BTTS No:
    47.9%fair odds 2.09

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    33.8%fair odds 2.96
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    66.2%fair odds 1.51

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

SevillaCA Osasuna
  1. Goal: Isaac Romeroassist Youssouf Fofana24'
  2. 29'Yellow card: Alejandro Catena
  3. Yellow card: Isaac Romero55'
  4. 68'Yellow card: Valentin Rosier
  5. Goal: Felix Correiaassist Youssouf Fofana82'

Statistics

SevillaCA Osasuna
advantaged: 17Shots10
advantaged: 7Shots on target2
advantaged: 7Corners4
%45Possessionadvantaged: %55
11Fouls8
advantaged: 0.88Expected goals (xG)0.76

Shot map

Sevilla

17 shots · 2 goals · xG 0.88

CA Osasuna

10 shots · 0 goals · xG 0.76

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Sevilla4-4-2

  1. 1Odisseas Vlachodimos
  2. 2Enrique Salas
  3. 3Andrés Castrín
  4. 4Gabriel Suazo
  5. 5Juan Iglesias
  6. 6Lucien Agoumé
  7. 7Youssouf Fofana
  8. 8Felix Correia
  9. 9Chidera Ejuke
  10. 10Isaac Romero
  11. 11Lucas Stassin

CA Osasuna4-3-3

  1. 1Aitor Fernández
  2. 2Enzo Boyomo
  3. 3Alejandro Catena
  4. 4Abel Bretones
  5. 5Valentin Rosier
  6. 6Lucas Torró
  7. 7Moi Gómez
  8. 8Jon Moncayola
  9. 9Ante Budimir
  10. 10Jonathan Dubasin
  11. 11Rubén García

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultSevilla win%41it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%54it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%48most likely: Both teams score %52

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.38–1.12 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.80–0.69 · score: 2–0

Form and standings

SevillaCA Osasuna
League tableadvantaged: 6. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 3L 12. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LDLWW1.4 pts/matchWLDLL0.8 pts/match

Goals

SevillaCA Osasuna
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.381.12

Match total 2.5

Clean sheetadvantaged: 2/51/5
Luck+3.0 puan−1.2 puan

Players

SevillaCA Osasuna
Starting XI · official4-4-24-3-3
ScorerIsaac Romero2 goalsAnte Budimir7 goals
Most dangerousRobbie Ureexpected goals 2.0Ante Budimirexpected goals 5.4
Finisher—Ante Budimir+0.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperOdisseas Vlachodimosconceded 2.0 goals more than expectedSergio Herreraconceded 2.5 goals more than expected
Most cardsIsaac Romero5 yellow, 1 redJon Moncayola4 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity3/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF SEVILLA

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,64 per match, away sides 1,16
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Sevilla -0,1, CA Osasuna -0,76

IN FAVOUR OF CA OSASUNA

  • Sevilla's attack is %18 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.