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La Liga24 Oct 19:30 TRT

Valencia CF×Villarreal CF

MATCH FINISHEDValencia 1–2 VillarrealHT 1–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 19:23 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Valencia: 29.8%fair odds 3.36
  • FT X · draw: 28.4%fair odds 3.52
  • FT 2 · Villarreal: 41.8%fair odds 2.39

Double chance

  • 1X · Valencia doesn't lose:
    58.2%fair odds 1.72
    X2 · Villarreal doesn't lose:
    70.2%fair odds 1.42
    12 · no draw:
    71.6%fair odds 1.40

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    48.1%fair odds 2.08
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    51.9%fair odds 1.93

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    57.0%fair odds 1.76
    BTTS No:
    43.0%fair odds 2.32

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    30.4%fair odds 3.29
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    69.6%fair odds 1.44

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

ValenciaVillarreal
  1. Yellow card: Dani Raba34'
  2. 37'Yellow card: Renato Veiga
  3. Goal: Pepelupenalty38'
  4. 43'Yellow card: Ayoze Pérez
  5. 59'Yellow card: Tajon Buchanan
  6. Yellow card: Pablo Maffeo60'
  7. Yellow card: Guido Rodríguez62'
  8. 69'Goal: Alex Freemanassist Sergi Cardona
  9. 79'Red card: Pape Gueye
  10. Yellow card: Harvey Elliott89'
  11. Red card: Harvey Elliott89'
  12. 90+6'Goal: Georges Mikautadzeassist Alberto Moleiro

Statistics

ValenciaVillarreal
9Shotsadvantaged: 19
advantaged: 5Shots on target3
6Cornersadvantaged: 9
%39Possessionadvantaged: %62
18Fouls9
1.17Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 1.53

Shot map

Valencia

9 shots · 1 goals · xG 1.17

Villarreal

19 shots · 2 goals · xG 1.53

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Valencia4-4-2

  1. 1Stole Dimitrievski
  2. 2Justin de Haas
  3. 3César Tárrega
  4. 4José Gayà
  5. 5Pablo Maffeo
  6. 6Pepelu
  7. 7Guido Rodríguez
  8. 8Luis Rioja
  9. 9David Otorbi
  10. 10Arnaut Danjuma
  11. 11Javier Guerra

Villarreal4-4-2

  1. 1Péter Gulácsi
  2. 2Renato Veiga
  3. 3Juan Foyth
  4. 4Alex Freeman
  5. 5Santiago Mouriño
  6. 6Pape Gueye
  7. 7Carlos Macià
  8. 8Tajon Buchanan
  9. 9Ilias Akhomach
  10. 10Ayoze Pérez
  11. 11Gerard Moreno

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultVillarreal win%42it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%52it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%57it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.24–1.51 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.07–1.38 · score: 1–2

Form and standings

ValenciaVillarreal
League table19. place 6 pts · 1W 3D 5L advantaged: 14. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 4L
Last 5 matchesDDLWL1.0 pts/matchadvantaged: DLWWL1.4 pts/match

Goals

ValenciaVillarreal
Expected goals1.24advantaged: 1.51

Match total 2.8

Clean sheetadvantaged: 2/51/5
Luck−4.1 puan−7.6 puan

Players

ValenciaVillarreal
Starting XI · official4-4-24-4-2
ScorerAaron Mayol1 goalsPape Gueye3 goals
Most dangerousJavier Guerraexpected goals 1.1Alberto Moleiroexpected goals 3.1
Finisher—Alberto Moleiro−1.1 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperStole Dimitrievskiconceded 0.2 goals fewer than expectedPéter Gulácsiconceded 2.0 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsDani Raba2 yellowJuan Foyth3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity3/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF VALENCIA

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,16

IN FAVOUR OF VILLARREAL

  • Villarreal's attack is %22 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Valencia's attack is %9 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1476 – 1594: Villarreal ahead by 118 points — effect on expected goals %6Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Valencia -0,09, Villarreal +1,2

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.