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Premier League24 Oct 17:00 TRT

Coventry City FC×Fulham FC

MATCH FINISHEDCoventry City 0–1 FulhamHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 16:29 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Coventry City: 36.5%fair odds 2.74
  • FT X · draw: 29.8%fair odds 3.35
  • FT 2 · Fulham: 33.7%fair odds 2.97

Double chance

  • 1X · Coventry City doesn't lose:
    66.3%fair odds 1.51
    X2 · Fulham doesn't lose:
    63.5%fair odds 1.57
    12 · no draw:
    70.2%fair odds 1.42

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    52.5%fair odds 1.90
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    47.5%fair odds 2.11

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    54.0%fair odds 1.85
    BTTS No:
    46.0%fair odds 2.17

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    32.8%fair odds 3.05
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    67.2%fair odds 1.49

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Coventry CityFulham
  1. 36'Yellow card: Shea Charles
  2. 80'Goal: Oscar Bobbassist Josh King
  3. 82'Yellow card: Antonee Robinson

Statistics

Coventry CityFulham
advantaged: 13Shots12
2Shots on targetadvantaged: 3
4Cornersadvantaged: 6
%36Possessionadvantaged: %64
9Fouls11
0.40Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 0.58

Shot map

Coventry City

13 shots · 0 goals · xG 0.40

Fulham

12 shots · 1 goals · xG 0.58

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Coventry City4-2-3-1

  1. 1Carl Rushworth
  2. 2Ethan Pinnock
  3. 3Bobby Thomas
  4. 4Jay Da Silva
  5. 5Milan van Ewijk
  6. 6Jack Rudoni
  7. 7Matt Grimes
  8. 8Caleb Yirenkyi
  9. 9Sidiki Cherif
  10. 10Brandon Thomas-Asante
  11. 11Tatsuhiro Sakamoto

Fulham4-2-3-1

  1. 1Bernd Leno
  2. 2Calvin Bassey
  3. 3David Affengruber
  4. 4Antonee Robinson
  5. 5Timothy Castagne
  6. 6Josh King
  7. 7Hugo Larsson
  8. 8Shea Charles
  9. 9Gonzalo García
  10. 10Alex Iwobi
  11. 11Oscar Bobb

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultFulham win%34most likely: Coventry City win %36
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%53it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%46most likely: Both teams score %54

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.32–1.26 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.33–0.48 · score: 0–1

Form and standings

Coventry CityFulham
League tableadvantaged: 18. place 6 pts · 2W 0D 5L 19. place 5 pts · 1W 2D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LWWLL1.2 pts/matchWLDDL1.0 pts/match

Goals

Coventry CityFulham
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.321.26

Match total 2.6

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck−1.2 puan−4.6 puan

Players

Coventry CityFulham
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerJack Rudoni2 goalsJosh King2 goals
Most dangerousJack Rudoniexpected goals 2.3Gonzalo Garcíaexpected goals 3.1
Finisher—Gonzalo García−2.1 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperCarl Rushworthconceded 7.1 goals more than expectedBernd Lenoconceded 0.6 goals more than expected
Most cardsTaiwo Awoniyi1 redJosh King3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity1/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF COVENTRY CITY

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,55 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Fulham's attack is %8 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF FULHAM

  • Coventry City's attack is %12 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Coventry City -0,68, Fulham +0,38
  • Coventry City concedes %6 more goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.