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Premier League24 Oct 19:30 TRT

Chelsea FC×Tottenham Hotspur FC

MATCH FINISHEDChelsea 0–2 Tottenham HotspurHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 19:02 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Chelsea: 54.4%fair odds 1.84
  • FT X · draw: 25.5%fair odds 3.93
  • FT 2 · Tottenham Hotspur: 20.2%fair odds 4.95

Double chance

  • 1X · Chelsea doesn't lose:
    79.8%fair odds 1.25
    X2 · Tottenham Hotspur doesn't lose:
    45.6%fair odds 2.19
    12 · no draw:
    74.5%fair odds 1.34

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    44.3%fair odds 2.26
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    55.7%fair odds 1.80

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    56.5%fair odds 1.77
    BTTS No:
    43.5%fair odds 2.30

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    28.4%fair odds 3.52
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    71.6%fair odds 1.40

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

ChelseaTottenham Hotspur
  1. 67'Yellow card: Conor Gallagher
  2. 71'Yellow card: Micky van de Ven
  3. Yellow card: Cole Palmer71'
  4. 72'Yellow card: Mateus Fernandes
  5. 77'Goal: Mike Pendersown goal
  6. Yellow card: Pedro Neto79'
  7. Red card: Cole Palmer80'
  8. 87'Goal: Mathys Tel
  9. Yellow card: Morgan Rogers90+1'

Statistics

ChelseaTottenham Hotspur
7Shotsadvantaged: 15
4Shots on target4
4Cornersadvantaged: 6
%32Possessionadvantaged: %69
14Fouls14
0.46Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 0.98

Shot map

Chelsea

8 shots · 0 goals · xG 0.46

Tottenham Hotspur

15 shots · 1 goals · xG 0.98

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Chelsea3-4-2-1

  1. 1Mike Penders
  2. 2Maxence Lacroix
  3. 3Levi Colwill
  4. 4Josh Acheampong
  5. 5Jordan Henderson
  6. 6Moisés Caicedo
  7. 7Jorrel Hato
  8. 8Pedro Neto
  9. 9Morgan Rogers
  10. 10Geovany Quenda
  11. 11Cole Palmer

Tottenham Hotspur4-2-3-1

  1. 1Antonín Kinsky
  2. 2Micky van de Ven
  3. 3Jan Paul van Hecke
  4. 4Andy Robertson
  5. 5Archie Gray
  6. 6James Maddison
  7. 7Sandro Tonali
  8. 8Mateus Fernandes
  9. 9Omar Marmoush
  10. 10Mathys Tel
  11. 11Mohammed Kudus

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultTottenham Hotspur win%20most likely: Chelsea win %54
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%44most likely: 3 or more goals %56
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%43most likely: Both teams score %57

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.85–1.06 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.38–0.81 · score: 0–2

Form and standings

ChelseaTottenham Hotspur
League tableadvantaged: 4. place 13 pts · 4W 1D 2L 17. place 6 pts · 1W 3D 3L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWLDL1.4 pts/matchWDLDD1.2 pts/match

Goals

ChelseaTottenham Hotspur
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.851.06

Match total 2.9

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck+3.8 puan−2.8 puan

Players

ChelseaTottenham Hotspur
Starting XI · official3-4-2-14-2-3-1
ScorerJoão Pedro5 goalsDominic Solanke1 goals
Most dangerousCole Palmerexpected goals 1.7Sávioexpected goals 0.4
FinisherJoão Pedro+2.0 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperEmiliano Martinezconceded 4.7 goals fewer than expectedAntonín Kinskyconceded 0.4 goals more than expected
Most cardsCole Palmer2 yellowRodrigo Bentancur1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity7/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF CHELSEA

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,55 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Tottenham Hotspur's attack is %15 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Chelsea's attack is %13 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1562 – 1436: Chelsea ahead by 126 points — effect on expected goals %6Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Chelsea -0,77, Tottenham Hotspur +0,16

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.