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Premier League25 Oct 19:30 TRTREFEREE · STUART ATTWELL

Sunderland AFC×Leeds United FC

MATCH FINISHEDSunderland 0–0 Leeds UnitedHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 19:27 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Sunderland: 29.5%fair odds 3.39
  • FT X · draw: 29.3%fair odds 3.41
  • FT 2 · Leeds United: 41.2%fair odds 2.43

Double chance

  • 1X · Sunderland doesn't lose:
    58.8%fair odds 1.70
    X2 · Leeds United doesn't lose:
    70.5%fair odds 1.42
    12 · no draw:
    70.7%fair odds 1.42

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    51.7%fair odds 1.93
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    48.3%fair odds 2.07

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    54.2%fair odds 1.84
    BTTS No:
    45.8%fair odds 2.18

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    32.3%fair odds 3.09
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    67.7%fair odds 1.48

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

SunderlandLeeds United
  1. 29'Yellow card: Ethan Ampadu
  2. Yellow card: Reinildo Mandava39'
  3. 67'Yellow card: Jayden Bogle

Statistics

SunderlandLeeds United
advantaged: 15Shots11
4Shots on target4
4Cornersadvantaged: 5
advantaged: %51Possession%49
10Fouls14
1.03Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 1.06

Shot map

Sunderland

15 shots · 0 goals · xG 1.03

Leeds United

11 shots · 0 goals · xG 1.06

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Sunderland4-2-3-1

  1. 1Robin Roefs
  2. 2Luke O'Nien
  3. 3Nordi Mukiele
  4. 4Reinildo Mandava
  5. 5Trai Hume
  6. 6Enzo Le Fée
  7. 7Noah Sadiki
  8. 8Granit Xhaka
  9. 9Brian Brobbey
  10. 10Nilson Angulo
  11. 11Chris Rigg

Leeds United3-4-2-1

  1. 1James Trafford
  2. 2Jaka Bijol
  3. 3Tarik Muharemovic
  4. 4James Justin
  5. 5Ao Tanaka
  6. 6Ethan Ampadu
  7. 7Gabriel Gudmundsson
  8. 8Jayden Bogle
  9. 9Dominic Calvert-Lewin
  10. 10Brenden Aaronson
  11. 11Harry Wilson

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultDraw%29most likely: Leeds United win %41
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%52it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%46most likely: Both teams score %54

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.18–1.43 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.85–0.89 · score: 0–0

Form and standings

SunderlandLeeds United
League table20. place 4 pts · 1W 1D 5L advantaged: 9. place 10 pts · 2W 4D 1L
Last 5 matchesLLLLD0.2 pts/matchadvantaged: DLDWD1.2 pts/match

Goals

SunderlandLeeds United
Expected goals1.18advantaged: 1.43

Match total 2.6

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck−4.5 puan+0.1 puan

Players

SunderlandLeeds United
Starting XI · official4-2-3-13-4-2-1
ScorerBrian Brobbey3 goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin3 goals
Most dangerousEnzo Le Féeexpected goals 1.6Dominic Calvert-Lewinexpected goals 3.3
FinisherBrian Brobbey+0.6 goals vs expectationDominic Calvert-Lewin−0.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperRobin Roefsconceded 2.3 goals more than expectedJames Traffordconceded 1.6 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsReinildo Mandava1 yellow, 1 redDominic Calvert-Lewin3 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

SunderlandLeeds United
RefereeStuart Attwell

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity3/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF SUNDERLAND

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,54 per match, away sides 1,25

IN FAVOUR OF LEEDS UNITED

  • Sunderland's attack is %15 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Sunderland concedes %9 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Sunderland -0,8, Leeds United +0,13
  • Strength rating 1472 – 1520: Leeds United ahead by 49 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.