Skip to content
Premier League25 Oct 17:00 TRT

Manchester United FC×AFC Bournemouth

MATCH FINISHEDManchester United 0–3 BournemouthHT 0–2

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 14:20 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Manchester United: 46.3%fair odds 2.16
  • FT X · draw: 26.6%fair odds 3.77
  • FT 2 · Bournemouth: 27.2%fair odds 3.68

Double chance

  • 1X · Manchester United doesn't lose:
    72.8%fair odds 1.37
    X2 · Bournemouth doesn't lose:
    53.7%fair odds 1.86
    12 · no draw:
    73.4%fair odds 1.36

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    42.4%fair odds 2.36
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    57.6%fair odds 1.74

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    60.6%fair odds 1.65
    BTTS No:
    39.4%fair odds 2.54

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.5%fair odds 3.64
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.5%fair odds 1.38

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Manchester UnitedBournemouth
  1. Yellow card: Andrey Santos22'
  2. 27'Yellow card: Tyler Adams
  3. Yellow card: Ayden Heaven37'
  4. 38'Goal: Rayanassist Justin Kluivert
  5. Yellow card: Youri Tielemans40'
  6. 43'Goal: Marcus Tavernierassist Adrien Truffert
  7. Yellow card: Harry Maguire45+3'
  8. 71'Goal: Evanilsonassist Lewis Cook

Statistics

Manchester UnitedBournemouth
advantaged: 16Shots10
advantaged: 5Shots on target4
advantaged: 5Corners4
advantaged: %63Possession%38
13Fouls17
0.84Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 2.56

Shot map

Manchester United

17 shots · 0 goals · xG 0.84

Bournemouth

10 shots · 3 goals · xG 2.56

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Manchester United4-2-3-1

  1. 1Senne Lammens
  2. 2Ayden Heaven
  3. 3Harry Maguire
  4. 4Diogo Dalot
  5. 5Leny Yoro
  6. 6Youri Tielemans
  7. 7Carlos Baleba
  8. 8Andrey Santos
  9. 9Bryan Mbeumo
  10. 10Mason Mount
  11. 11Amad Diallo

Bournemouth4-2-3-1

  1. 1Djordje Petrovic
  2. 2António Silva
  3. 3James Hill
  4. 4Adrien Truffert
  5. 5Adam Smith
  6. 6Justin Kluivert
  7. 7Lewis Cook
  8. 8Tyler Adams
  9. 9Evanilson
  10. 10Marcus Tavernier
  11. 11Rayan

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultBournemouth win%27most likely: Manchester United win %46
3+ goals?3 or more goals%58it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%39most likely: Both teams score %61

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.72–1.28 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.70–2.13 · score: 0–3

Form and standings

Manchester UnitedBournemouth
League tableadvantaged: 15. place 7 pts · 1W 4D 2L 17. place 6 pts · 1W 3D 3L
Last 5 matchesDDDLD0.8 pts/matchadvantaged: WLLDD1.0 pts/match

Goals

Manchester UnitedBournemouth
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.721.28

Match total 3.0

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck−2.7 puan−6.1 puan

Players

Manchester UnitedBournemouth
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerBryan Mbeumo4 goalsMarcus Tavernier4 goals
Most dangerousBryan Mbeumoexpected goals 3.4Evanilsonexpected goals 2.4
FinisherBryan Mbeumo+0.6 goals vs expectationMarcus Tavernier+1.9 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperSenne Lammensconceded 3.6 goals fewer than expectedDjordje Petrovicconceded 4.4 goals more than expected
Most cardsBruno Fernandes2 yellowAdam Smith3 yellow

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity5/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF MANCHESTER UNITED

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,54 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Manchester United's attack is %16 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Manchester United concedes %10 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1567 – 1546: Manchester United ahead by 21 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF BOURNEMOUTH

  • Bournemouth's attack is %12 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Manchester United -0,29, Bournemouth +1,37

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.