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Premier League23 Oct 22:00 TRT

Ipswich Town FC×Nottingham Forest FC

MATCH FINISHEDIpswich Town 1–1 Nottingham ForestHT 1–1

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (23 Oct 19:43 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Ipswich Town: 21.3%fair odds 4.69
  • FT X · draw: 27.0%fair odds 3.71
  • FT 2 · Nottingham Forest: 51.7%fair odds 1.93

Double chance

  • 1X · Ipswich Town doesn't lose:
    48.3%fair odds 2.07
    X2 · Nottingham Forest doesn't lose:
    78.7%fair odds 1.27
    12 · no draw:
    73.0%fair odds 1.37

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    48.6%fair odds 2.06
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    51.4%fair odds 1.94

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    54.1%fair odds 1.85
    BTTS No:
    45.9%fair odds 2.18

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    30.6%fair odds 3.27
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    69.4%fair odds 1.44

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Ipswich TownNottingham Forest
  1. 13'Goal: Neco Williamsassist Daniel Muñoz
  2. Goal: Julio Enciso41'
  3. Yellow card: Issa Diop51'
  4. 54'Yellow card: Murillo

Statistics

Ipswich TownNottingham Forest
7Shotsadvantaged: 17
3Shots on targetadvantaged: 5
0Cornersadvantaged: 5
%49Possessionadvantaged: %51
9Fouls11
0.86Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 2.76

Shot map

Ipswich Town

7 shots · 1 goals · xG 0.86

Nottingham Forest

17 shots · 1 goals · xG 2.76

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Ipswich Town4-2-3-1

  1. 1Christian Walton
  2. 2Dara O'Shea
  3. 3Issa Diop
  4. 4Leif Davis
  5. 5Abdoul Ouattara
  6. 6Julio Enciso
  7. 7Florentino
  8. 8Exequiel Palacios
  9. 9Emersonn
  10. 10Jaden Philogene
  11. 11Fatawu Issahaku

Nottingham Forest3-4-2-1

  1. 1Matz Sels
  2. 2Nikola Milenkovic
  3. 3Murillo
  4. 4Jair Paula
  5. 5Xaver Schlager
  6. 6James McAtee
  7. 7Neco Williams
  8. 8Daniel Muñoz
  9. 9Liam Delap
  10. 10Dan Ndoye
  11. 11Morgan Gibbs-White

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultDraw%27most likely: Nottingham Forest win %52
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%49most likely: 3 or more goals %51
Both teams to score?Both teams score%54it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.03–1.70 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.71–2.30 · score: 1–1

Form and standings

Ipswich TownNottingham Forest
League tableadvantaged: 10. place 9 pts · 3W 0D 4L 19. place 5 pts · 1W 2D 4L

Form and league table favours Ipswich Town, the model favours Nottingham Forest. In the 239 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 50%, the form and league table's side won 24%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LWLWL1.2 pts/matchLLLWD0.8 pts/match

Goals

Ipswich TownNottingham Forest
Expected goals1.03advantaged: 1.70

Match total 2.7

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck+2.0 puan−7.0 puan

Players

Ipswich TownNottingham Forest
Starting XI · official4-2-3-13-4-2-1
ScorerEmersonn2 goalsDan Ndoye2 goals
Most dangerousEmersonnexpected goals 1.7Dan Ndoyeexpected goals 2.5
Finisher—Dan Ndoye−0.5 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperKjell Scherpenconceded 2.2 goals more than expectedMatz Selsconceded 1.5 goals more than expected
Most cardsFatawu Issahaku3 yellow, 1 redOla Aina3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity7/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF IPSWICH TOWN

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,55 per match, away sides 1,26

IN FAVOUR OF NOTTINGHAM FOREST

  • Ipswich Town concedes %30 more goals than the league average
  • Ipswich Town's attack is %19 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1356 – 1507: Nottingham Forest ahead by 151 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Ipswich Town -0,74, Nottingham Forest +0,61

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.