League: Table and End-of-Season Forecast

01 · TABLE AND END OF SEASON 02 · POINTS DESERVED

SÜPER LIG · TABLE

81 MATCHES PLAYED · 225 MATCHES LEFT

HOW TO READ IT

Galatasaray is top today on 22 points. We played all the remaining matches 10,000 times with the model: Galatasaray finishes the season on an average of 73 points and wins the title with a 48% probability. The most likely finishing position is 1.

The Today columns are the real table: played (P), goal difference (GD), points (Pts).
The End of season columns are the forecast: points finished on, chance of winning the title, of finishing in the top 4 and in the bottom 3.
In the Likely position strip each box from 1 to 18 is a position; the brighter the box, the higher the team's chance of finishing there.

TODAY					END-OF-SEASON FORECAST
#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS	POINTS	TITLE	TOP 4	BOTTOM 3	LIKELY POSITION (1 → 18)
1	Galatasaray	9	+7	22	73	48%	96%	0%
2	Amed SFK	9	+10	20	63	5%	57%	0%
3	Trabzonspor	9	+14	19	67	16%	85%	0%
4	Beşiktaş	9	+8	18	63	5%	59%	0%
5	Fenerbahçe	9	+15	16	69	26%	91%	0%
6	Kasımpaşa	9	+4	16	46	0%	1%	1%
7	Kocaelispor	9	+2	15	46	0%	1%	1%
8	Erzurum BB	9	−4	14	43	0%	<1%	4%
9	Çorum FK	9	+3	13	49	<1%	3%	<1%
10	Göztepe	9	+3	12	48	<1%	2%	1%
11	Alanyaspor	9	−2	12	42	0%	<1%	5%
12	İstanbul Başakşehir	9	−2	11	52	<1%	5%	<1%
13	Çaykur Rizespor	9	−4	10	39	0%	<1%	11%
14	Konyaspor	9	−3	8	36	0%	0%	22%
15	Gaziantep FK	9	−6	8	31	0%	0%	57%
16	Gençlerbirliği	9	−11	8	34	0%	0%	39%
17	Samsunspor	9	−13	4	31	0%	0%	61%
18	Eyüpspor	9	−21	3	21	0%	0%	98%

How it was calculated: the goal expectation of each remaining match comes from the model's current team-strength measurement; the matches are played 10,000 times with that expectation and the table is rebuilt each time. Ties are broken by goal difference and goals scored; league-specific rules such as head-to-head goal difference are not applied. “Top 4” and “bottom 3” only show the position, not the league's European or relegation quotas. It is a model forecast, not betting advice. The model's full track record (Turkish) →