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LEAGUE / TABLE AND END OF SEASON300 MATCHES LEFT

HOW WILL THE LEAGUE
END?

The league's current table and the model's end-of-season forecast side by side: how many points will each team finish on, and what are the chances of winning the title, reaching the top 4 or dropping into the bottom 3? Recalculated after every match.

01 · TABLE AND END OF SEASON02 · POINTS DESERVED

PREMIER LEAGUE · TABLE

80 MATCHES PLAYED · 300 MATCHES LEFT

HOW TO READ IT

Manchester City FC is top today on 21 points. We played all the remaining matches 10,000 times with the model: Manchester City FC finishes the season on an average of 81 points and wins the title with a 44% probability. The most likely finishing position is 2.

  • The Today columns are the real table: played (P), goal difference (GD), points (Pts).
  • The End of season columns are the forecast: points finished on, chance of winning the title, of finishing in the top 4 and in the bottom 3.
  • In the Likely position strip each box from 1 to 20 is a position; the brighter the box, the higher the team's chance of finishing there.
TODAYEND-OF-SEASON FORECAST
#TEAMPGDPTSPOINTSTITLETOP 4BOTTOM 3LIKELY POSITION (1 → 20)
1Manchester City FC8+11218144%99%0%
2Arsenal FC8+8218254%>99%0%
3Brighton & Hove Albion FC8+1616672%71%0%
4Liverpool FC8+31563<1%49%<1%
5Chelsea FC8+21356<1%16%<1%
6Brentford FC8+51154<1%9%1%
7Leeds United FC8+31154<1%8%1%
8Newcastle United FC8−211470%1%8%
9Aston Villa FC8−31153<1%6%2%
10Hull City AFC8+110460%1%12%
11Everton FC8−110470%1%8%
12Ipswich Town FC8−410320%0%86%
13AFC Bournemouth8−1959<1%27%<1%
14Tottenham Hotspur FC8−29440%<1%18%
15Fulham FC8−28450%1%13%
16Manchester United FC8−3754<1%9%1%
17Crystal Palace FC8−107390%<1%43%
18Nottingham Forest FC8−46480%2%6%
19Coventry City FC8−96400%<1%41%
20Sunderland AFC8−85370%<1%59%

How it was calculated: the goal expectation of each remaining match comes from the model's current team-strength measurement; the matches are played 10,000 times with that expectation and the table is rebuilt each time. Ties are broken by goal difference and goals scored; league-specific rules such as head-to-head goal difference are not applied. “Top 4” and “bottom 3” only show the position, not the league's European or relegation quotas. It is a model forecast, not betting advice. The model's full track record (Turkish) →