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Serie A28 Oct 20:30 TRT

Venezia FC×FC Internazionale Milano

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Venezia: 7.7%fair odds 12.95
  • FT X · draw: 16.6%fair odds 6.04
  • FT 2 · Internazionale Milano: 75.7%fair odds 1.32

Double chance

  • 1X · Venezia doesn't lose:
    24.3%fair odds 4.12
    X2 · Internazionale Milano doesn't lose:
    92.3%fair odds 1.08
    12 · no draw:
    83.4%fair odds 1.20

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    35.6%fair odds 2.81
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    64.4%fair odds 1.55

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    49.6%fair odds 2.02
    BTTS No:
    50.4%fair odds 1.98

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    23.6%fair odds 4.24
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    76.4%fair odds 1.31

ANALYSES

Form and standings

VeneziaInternazionale Milano
League table20. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 7L advantaged: 1. place 22 pts · 7W 1D 0L
Last 5 matchesLWLLL0.6 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWDW2.6 pts/match

Goals

VeneziaInternazionale Milano
Expected goals0.75advantaged: 2.57

Match total 3.3

Clean sheet1/51/5
Luck−6.0 puan+2.9 puan

Players

VeneziaInternazionale Milano
Last starting XI3-5-23-5-2
ScorerAntoine Hainaut2 goalsMarcus Thuram5 goals
Most dangerousJohn Yeboahexpected goals 3.7Lautaro Martínezexpected goals 4.6
FinisherAkor Adams−0.3 goals vs expectationMarcus Thuram+0.7 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperFilip Stankovicconceded 1.3 goals fewer than expectedJosep Martínezconceded 1.9 goals more than expected
Most cardsEnrique Perez3 yellowLautaro Martínez2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity10/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF VENEZIA

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,24

IN FAVOUR OF INTERNAZIONALE MILANO

  • Internazionale Milano's attack is %55 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Internazionale Milano concedes %21 fewer goals than the league average
  • Venezia concedes %19 more goals than the league average
  • Venezia's attack is %14 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1376 – 1756: Internazionale Milano ahead by 380 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Venezia -0,65, Internazionale Milano +1,89

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.