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Serie A29 Oct 22:45 TRT

ACF Fiorentina×Atalanta BC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · ACF Fiorentina: 27.8%fair odds 3.59
  • FT X · draw: 27.6%fair odds 3.62
  • FT 2 · Atalanta: 44.5%fair odds 2.25

Double chance

  • 1X · ACF Fiorentina doesn't lose:
    55.5%fair odds 1.80
    X2 · Atalanta doesn't lose:
    72.2%fair odds 1.39
    12 · no draw:
    72.4%fair odds 1.38

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    46.1%fair odds 2.17
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    53.9%fair odds 1.86

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    58.1%fair odds 1.72
    BTTS No:
    41.9%fair odds 2.39

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    29.4%fair odds 3.40
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    70.6%fair odds 1.42

ANALYSES

Form and standings

ACF FiorentinaAtalanta
League table18. place 4 pts · 1W 1D 6L advantaged: 11. place 10 pts · 3W 1D 4L
Last 5 matchesLLLDW0.8 pts/matchDLWLL0.8 pts/match

Goals

ACF FiorentinaAtalanta
Expected goals1.23advantaged: 1.60

Match total 2.8

Clean sheet0/50/5
Luck−5.0 puan+1.9 puan

Players

ACF FiorentinaAtalanta
Last starting XI4-3-34-2-3-1
ScorerFranco Mastantuono3 goalsNikola Krstovic6 goals
Most dangerousFranco Mastantuonoexpected goals 2.4Nikola Krstovicexpected goals 4.4
FinisherFranco Mastantuono+0.6 goals vs expectationNikola Krstovic+1.6 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperDavid de Geaconceded 3.0 goals more than expectedMarco Carnesecchiconceded 0.8 goals more than expected
Most cardsFranco Mastantuono2 yellowEljif Elmas1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity4/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ACF FIORENTINA

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,24
  • Atalanta concedes %7 more goals than the league average

IN FAVOUR OF ATALANTA

  • Atalanta's attack is %14 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • ACF Fiorentina concedes %9 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1480 – 1586: Atalanta ahead by 106 points — effect on expected goals %5Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • ACF Fiorentina's attack is %6 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: ACF Fiorentina -0,27, Atalanta +0,22

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.