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Serie A28 Oct 20:30 TRT

AC Milan×Bologna FC 1909

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Milan: 52.8%fair odds 1.89
  • FT X · draw: 27.1%fair odds 3.69
  • FT 2 · Bologna FC 1909: 20.1%fair odds 4.98

Double chance

  • 1X · Milan doesn't lose:
    79.9%fair odds 1.25
    X2 · Bologna FC 1909 doesn't lose:
    47.2%fair odds 2.12
    12 · no draw:
    72.9%fair odds 1.37

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    50.4%fair odds 1.98
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    49.6%fair odds 2.02

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    52.0%fair odds 1.92
    BTTS No:
    48.0%fair odds 2.09

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    31.6%fair odds 3.17
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    68.4%fair odds 1.46

ANALYSES

Form and standings

MilanBologna FC 1909
League tableadvantaged: 4. place 18 pts · 5W 3D 0L 13. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWDWD2.2 pts/matchWLWDL1.4 pts/match

Goals

MilanBologna FC 1909
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.690.97

Match total 2.7

Clean sheetadvantaged: 2/51/5
Luck+3.0 puan−4.8 puan

Players

MilanBologna FC 1909
Last starting XI3-4-2-13-4-3
ScorerAdrien Rabiot4 goalsFederico Bernardeschi2 goals
Most dangerousGonçalo Ramosexpected goals 4.5Federico Bernardeschiexpected goals 1.7
FinisherGonçalo Ramos−2.2 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperMike Maignanconceded 3.4 goals fewer than expectedLukasz Skorupskiconceded 0.6 goals more than expected
Most cardsStrahinja Pavlovic3 yellowFederico Bernardeschi2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity6/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF MILAN

  • Milan's attack is %16 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Milan concedes %10 fewer goals than the league average
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,24
  • Strength rating 1623 – 1518: Milan ahead by 105 points — effect on expected goals %5Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Milan +1,15, Bologna FC 1909 -0,37
  • Bologna FC 1909's attack is %6 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF BOLOGNA FC 1909

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.