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Serie A28 Oct 22:45 TRT

AC Monza×SSC Napoli

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Monza: 13.0%fair odds 7.70
  • FT X · draw: 24.1%fair odds 4.14
  • FT 2 · Napoli: 62.9%fair odds 1.59

Double chance

  • 1X · Monza doesn't lose:
    37.1%fair odds 2.69
    X2 · Napoli doesn't lose:
    87.0%fair odds 1.15
    12 · no draw:
    75.9%fair odds 1.32

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    50.7%fair odds 1.97
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    49.3%fair odds 2.03

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    46.4%fair odds 2.16
    BTTS No:
    53.6%fair odds 1.86

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    31.6%fair odds 3.17
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    68.4%fair odds 1.46

ANALYSES

Form and standings

MonzaNapoli
League table15. place 7 pts · 2W 1D 5L advantaged: 10. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 3L
Last 5 matchesLWLWL1.2 pts/matchadvantaged: DLWDW1.6 pts/match

Goals

MonzaNapoli
Expected goals0.76advantaged: 1.89

Match total 2.6

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck−3.8 puan−5.1 puan

Players

MonzaNapoli
Last starting XI3-4-2-14-3-3
ScorerGustavo Varela7 goalsKevin De Bruyne3 goals
Most dangerousGustavo Varelaexpected goals 3.0Kevin De Bruyneexpected goals 2.6
FinisherGustavo Varela+3.7 goals vs expectationRasmus Højlund−0.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperNoel Törnqvistconceded 1.6 goals fewer than expectedAlex Meretconceded 1.9 goals more than expected
Most cardsLorenzo Lucchesi2 yellow, 1 redRafa Marín2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity9/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF MONZA

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,24

IN FAVOUR OF NAPOLI

  • Monza concedes %25 more goals than the league average
  • Monza's attack is %18 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Napoli concedes %18 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1357 – 1638: Napoli ahead by 282 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Napoli's attack is %10 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Monza -0,47, Napoli +1,76

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.