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Serie A29 Oct 20:30 TRT

Frosinone Calcio×US Lecce

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Frosinone Calcio: 49.4%fair odds 2.02
  • FT X · draw: 25.5%fair odds 3.92
  • FT 2 · Lecce: 25.1%fair odds 3.98

Double chance

  • 1X · Frosinone Calcio doesn't lose:
    74.9%fair odds 1.34
    X2 · Lecce doesn't lose:
    50.6%fair odds 1.98
    12 · no draw:
    74.5%fair odds 1.34

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    39.7%fair odds 2.52
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    60.3%fair odds 1.66

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    62.0%fair odds 1.61
    BTTS No:
    38.0%fair odds 2.63

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    26.1%fair odds 3.83
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    73.9%fair odds 1.35

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Frosinone CalcioLecce
League tableadvantaged: 6. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 2L 12. place 9 pts · 3W 0D 5L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: DWLWD1.6 pts/matchLWLLW1.2 pts/match

Goals

Frosinone CalcioLecce
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.841.28

Match total 3.1

Clean sheet1/51/5
Luck+6.3 puan+1.7 puan

Players

Frosinone CalcioLecce
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-3-3
ScorerAntonio Raimondo7 goalsLassana Coulibaly2 goals
Most dangerousAntonio Raimondoexpected goals 4.6Willem Geubbelsexpected goals 2.5
FinisherAntonio Raimondo+2.4 goals vs expectationWillem Geubbels−2.5 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperLorenzo Palmisaniconceded 4.9 goals fewer than expectedWladimiro Falconeconceded 3.4 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsGabriele Bracaglia4 yellowKialonda Gaspar3 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity5/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF FROSINONE CALCIO

  • Lecce's attack is %17 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Lecce concedes %17 more goals than the league average
  • Frosinone Calcio's attack is %12 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1531 – 1408: Frosinone Calcio ahead by 123 points — effect on expected goals %6Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,24

IN FAVOUR OF LECCE

  • Frosinone Calcio concedes %28 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Frosinone Calcio -0,91, Lecce -0,09

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.