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Serie A28 Oct 22:45 TRT

Genoa CFC×Juventus FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Genoa: 13.2%fair odds 7.55
  • FT X · draw: 26.3%fair odds 3.80
  • FT 2 · Juventus: 60.4%fair odds 1.66

Double chance

  • 1X · Genoa doesn't lose:
    39.6%fair odds 2.53
    X2 · Juventus doesn't lose:
    86.8%fair odds 1.15
    12 · no draw:
    73.7%fair odds 1.36

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    57.6%fair odds 1.74
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    42.4%fair odds 2.36

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    41.7%fair odds 2.40
    BTTS No:
    58.3%fair odds 1.72

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    35.4%fair odds 2.83
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    64.6%fair odds 1.55

ANALYSES

Form and standings

GenoaJuventus
League table16. place 7 pts · 2W 1D 5L advantaged: 7. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 2L
Last 5 matchesWLWLD1.4 pts/matchWLDWL1.4 pts/match

Goals

GenoaJuventus
Expected goals0.68advantaged: 1.69

Match total 2.4

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck−0.9 puan−1.0 puan

Players

GenoaJuventus
Last starting XI3-4-2-13-1-4-2
ScorerMilutin Osmajic3 goalsEdon Zhegrova2 goals
Most dangerousMilutin Osmajicexpected goals 1.6Randal Kolo Muaniexpected goals 2.4
Finisher—Randal Kolo Muani−1.4 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperJustin Bijlowconceded 3.5 goals more than expectedGuglielmo Vicarioconceded 3.5 goals more than expected
Most cardsJohan Vásquez3 yellow, 1 redJhon Lucumí2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity8/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF GENOA

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,24

IN FAVOUR OF JUVENTUS

  • Juventus concedes %30 fewer goals than the league average
  • Juventus's attack is %24 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Genoa's attack is %15 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1434 – 1616: Juventus ahead by 182 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Genoa -0,23, Juventus +0,61

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.