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Serie A28 Oct 20:30 TRT

Parma Calcio 1913×Udinese Calcio

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Parma Calcio 1913: 31.2%fair odds 3.21
  • FT X · draw: 31.3%fair odds 3.19
  • FT 2 · Udinese Calcio: 37.5%fair odds 2.67

Double chance

  • 1X · Parma Calcio 1913 doesn't lose:
    62.5%fair odds 1.60
    X2 · Udinese Calcio doesn't lose:
    68.8%fair odds 1.45
    12 · no draw:
    68.7%fair odds 1.46

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    58.2%fair odds 1.72
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    41.8%fair odds 2.39

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    49.4%fair odds 2.02
    BTTS No:
    50.6%fair odds 1.98

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    35.9%fair odds 2.78
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    64.1%fair odds 1.56

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Parma Calcio 1913Udinese Calcio
League table19. place 4 pts · 1W 1D 6L advantaged: 17. place 4 pts · 1W 1D 6L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LLLWL0.6 pts/matchLLLLL0.0 pts/match

Goals

Parma Calcio 1913Udinese Calcio
Expected goals1.11advantaged: 1.24

Match total 2.4

Clean sheet0/50/5
Luck−2.6 puan−1.5 puan

Players

Parma Calcio 1913Udinese Calcio
Last starting XI5-3-23-4-2-1
ScorerJosé Romero2 goalsJurgen Ekkelenkamp3 goals
Most dangerousEmanuele Valeriexpected goals 0.1Jurgen Ekkelenkampexpected goals 1.2
Finisher——
GoalkeeperEdoardo Corviconceded 1.8 goals more than expectedMaduka Okoyeconceded 4.8 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsMariano Troilo3 yellowJesper Karlström3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity1/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF PARMA CALCIO 1913

  • Udinese Calcio concedes %16 more goals than the league average
  • Udinese Calcio's attack is %12 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,24
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Parma Calcio 1913 -1,1, Udinese Calcio -1,84

IN FAVOUR OF UDINESE CALCIO

  • Parma Calcio 1913's attack is %29 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Parma Calcio 1913 concedes %14 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1408 – 1440: Udinese Calcio ahead by 32 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

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Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.