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Serie A27 Oct 20:30 TRT

US Sassuolo Calcio×SS Lazio

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Sassuolo Calcio: 26.4%fair odds 3.79
  • FT X · draw: 30.4%fair odds 3.29
  • FT 2 · Lazio: 43.2%fair odds 2.31

Double chance

  • 1X · Sassuolo Calcio doesn't lose:
    56.8%fair odds 1.76
    X2 · Lazio doesn't lose:
    73.6%fair odds 1.36
    12 · no draw:
    69.6%fair odds 1.44

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    56.7%fair odds 1.76
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    43.3%fair odds 2.31

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    49.8%fair odds 2.01
    BTTS No:
    50.2%fair odds 1.99

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    35.1%fair odds 2.85
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    64.9%fair odds 1.54

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Sassuolo CalcioLazio
League table14. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 4L advantaged: 2. place 22 pts · 7W 1D 0L
Last 5 matchesLLDLW0.8 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWWD2.6 pts/match

Goals

Sassuolo CalcioLazio
Expected goals1.03advantaged: 1.38

Match total 2.4

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck−1.5 puan+8.9 puan

Players

Sassuolo CalcioLazio
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-3-3
ScorerVasilije Adzic3 goalsDavide Frattesi3 goals
Most dangerousArmand Laurienteexpected goals 1.6Mattia Zaccagniexpected goals 2.2
Finisher——
GoalkeeperArijanet Muricconceded 0.1 goals more than expectedChristos Mandasconceded 3.5 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsLuca Lipani2 yellowMattia Zaccagni3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity3/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF SASSUOLO CALCIO

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,24
  • Lazio's attack is %6 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF LAZIO

  • Lazio concedes %12 fewer goals than the league average
  • Sassuolo Calcio concedes %12 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1487 – 1589: Lazio ahead by 103 points — effect on expected goals %5Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Sassuolo Calcio -0,65, Lazio +0,4

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.