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Serie A27 Oct 22:45 TRT

AS Roma×Cagliari Calcio

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Roma: 66.0%fair odds 1.52
  • FT X · draw: 21.9%fair odds 4.56
  • FT 2 · Cagliari Calcio: 12.1%fair odds 8.26

Double chance

  • 1X · Roma doesn't lose:
    87.9%fair odds 1.14
    X2 · Cagliari Calcio doesn't lose:
    34.0%fair odds 2.94
    12 · no draw:
    78.1%fair odds 1.28

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    44.5%fair odds 2.25
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    55.5%fair odds 1.80

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    49.8%fair odds 2.01
    BTTS No:
    50.2%fair odds 1.99

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    28.3%fair odds 3.54
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    71.7%fair odds 1.39

ANALYSES

Form and standings

RomaCagliari Calcio
League tableadvantaged: 3. place 18 pts · 5W 3D 0L 9. place 13 pts · 4W 1D 3L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: DWDDW1.8 pts/matchLLDWW1.4 pts/match

Goals

RomaCagliari Calcio
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.100.81

Match total 2.9

Clean sheetadvantaged: 3/51/5
Luck+2.4 puan+4.7 puan

Players

RomaCagliari Calcio
Last starting XI3-5-24-3-2-1
ScorerDonyell Malen6 goalsDaniel Maldini4 goals
Most dangerousDonyell Malenexpected goals 5.8Daniel Maldiniexpected goals 2.5
FinisherMatìas Soulè Malvano+0.9 goals vs expectationPaul Mendy−1.1 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperMile Svilarconceded 0.2 goals fewer than expectedElia Caprileconceded 3.1 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsDonyell Malen1 yellow, 1 redAlessandro Deiola4 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity10/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.574 / 0.637

Last 8 months, 194 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.498 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.497 / 0.500

Last 8 months, 194 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ROMA

  • Roma's attack is %27 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Roma concedes %15 fewer goals than the league average
  • Cagliari Calcio's attack is %15 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1674 – 1436: Roma ahead by 238 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,34 per match, away sides 1,24
  • Cagliari Calcio concedes %5 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Roma +0,11, Cagliari Calcio -0,72

IN FAVOUR OF CAGLIARI CALCIO

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.