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Bundesliga31 Oct 17:30 TRT

SV Werder Bremen×TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Werder Bremen: 28.7%fair odds 3.48
  • FT X · draw: 26.6%fair odds 3.76
  • FT 2 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: 44.7%fair odds 2.24

Double chance

  • 1X · Werder Bremen doesn't lose:
    55.3%fair odds 1.81
    X2 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim doesn't lose:
    71.3%fair odds 1.40
    12 · no draw:
    73.4%fair odds 1.36

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    41.7%fair odds 2.40
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    58.3%fair odds 1.71

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    61.5%fair odds 1.63
    BTTS No:
    38.5%fair odds 2.60

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.1%fair odds 3.69
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.9%fair odds 1.37

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Werder BremenTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
League tableadvantaged: 6. place 12 pts · 3W 3D 1L 10. place 9 pts · 3W 0D 4L

League table favours Werder Bremen, the model favours TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. In the 155 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 50%, the league table's side won 25%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesWDDWD1.8 pts/matchWWLLW1.8 pts/match

Goals

Werder BremenTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Expected goals1.33advantaged: 1.70

Match total 3.0

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck+2.7 puan−2.8 puan

Players

Werder BremenTSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-4-2
ScorerNiclas Füllkrug8 goalsAdam Daghim2 goals
Most dangerousNiclas Füllkrugexpected goals 4.9Adam Hlozekexpected goals 3.0
FinisherNiclas Füllkrug+2.1 goals vs expectationAdam Hlozek−1.0 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperKarl Heinconceded 2.4 goals more than expectedOliver Baumannconceded 1.1 goals more than expected
Most cardsLudovit Reis2 yellowAlexander Prass2 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity3/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.648

Last 8 months, 160 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.440 / 0.447

Last 8 months, 160 matches

Both Teams to Score?did not beat the league average 0.464 / 0.462

Last 8 months, 160 matches · yalnızca bilgi için

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF WERDER BREMEN

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,84 per match, away sides 1,46

IN FAVOUR OF TSG 1899 HOFFENHEIM

  • Werder Bremen's attack is %18 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • TSG 1899 Hoffenheim's attack is %9 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • TSG 1899 Hoffenheim concedes %6 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1462 – 1527: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim ahead by 65 points — effect on expected goals %3Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Werder Bremen +0,35, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim +0,85

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.