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Bundesliga31 Oct 17:30 TRT

FC Augsburg×SC Freiburg

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Augsburg: 37.8%fair odds 2.65
  • FT X · draw: 26.2%fair odds 3.81
  • FT 2 · Freiburg: 36.0%fair odds 2.78

Double chance

  • 1X · Augsburg doesn't lose:
    64.0%fair odds 1.56
    X2 · Freiburg doesn't lose:
    62.2%fair odds 1.61
    12 · no draw:
    73.8%fair odds 1.36

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    38.3%fair odds 2.61
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    61.7%fair odds 1.62

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    64.8%fair odds 1.54
    BTTS No:
    35.2%fair odds 2.84

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    25.5%fair odds 3.93
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    74.5%fair odds 1.34

ANALYSES

Form and standings

AugsburgFreiburg
League table9. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 2L advantaged: 3. place 13 pts · 4W 1D 2L
Last 5 matchesDLDLD0.6 pts/matchadvantaged: LLWDW1.4 pts/match

Goals

AugsburgFreiburg
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.611.57

Match total 3.2

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck+0.8 puan+0.9 puan

Players

AugsburgFreiburg
Last starting XI3-4-2-14-2-3-1
ScorerMichael Gregoritsch4 goalsYuito Suzuki4 goals
Most dangerousMichael Gregoritschexpected goals 3.7Yuito Suzukiexpected goals 2.4
FinisherMichael Gregoritsch−0.0 goals vs expectationYuito Suzuki+1.6 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperFinn Dahmenconceded 1.4 goals fewer than expectedMio Backhausconceded 1.5 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsJuma Bah1 redYuito Suzuki2 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity1/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.648

Last 8 months, 160 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.440 / 0.447

Last 8 months, 160 matches

Both Teams to Score?did not beat the league average 0.464 / 0.462

Last 8 months, 160 matches · yalnızca bilgi için

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF AUGSBURG

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,84 per match, away sides 1,46
  • Freiburg's attack is %6 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF FREIBURG

  • Augsburg concedes %11 more goals than the league average
  • Freiburg concedes %7 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Augsburg -0,86, Freiburg +0,21
  • Strength rating 1484 – 1530: Freiburg ahead by 46 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.