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Bundesliga31 Oct 17:30 TRT

FC Schalke 04×RB Leipzig

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Schalke 04: 24.5%fair odds 4.07
  • FT X · draw: 24.6%fair odds 4.07
  • FT 2 · RB Leipzig: 50.9%fair odds 1.97

Double chance

  • 1X · Schalke 04 doesn't lose:
    49.1%fair odds 2.04
    X2 · RB Leipzig doesn't lose:
    75.5%fair odds 1.33
    12 · no draw:
    75.4%fair odds 1.33

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    36.7%fair odds 2.72
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    63.3%fair odds 1.58

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    64.0%fair odds 1.56
    BTTS No:
    36.0%fair odds 2.78

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    24.6%fair odds 4.07
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    75.4%fair odds 1.33

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Schalke 04RB Leipzig
League table16. place 6 pts · 1W 3D 3L advantaged: 5. place 12 pts · 4W 0D 3L
Last 5 matchesDLLDW1.0 pts/matchadvantaged: WLWLW1.8 pts/match

Goals

Schalke 04RB Leipzig
Expected goals1.32advantaged: 1.95

Match total 3.3

Clean sheet2/5advantaged: 3/5
Luck+0.2 puan−1.2 puan

Players

Schalke 04RB Leipzig
Last starting XI5-3-24-5-1
ScorerAdil Aouchiche1 goalsChristopher Nkunku4 goals
Most dangerousAdil Aouchicheexpected goals 1.1Antonio Nusaexpected goals 0.7
Finisher—Christopher Nkunku+1.4 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperLoris Kariusconceded 5.9 goals fewer than expectedMaarten Vandevoordtconceded 2.8 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsRon Schallenberg1 redAntonio Nusa2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity5/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.648

Last 8 months, 160 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.440 / 0.447

Last 8 months, 160 matches

Both Teams to Score?did not beat the league average 0.464 / 0.462

Last 8 months, 160 matches · yalnızca bilgi için

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF SCHALKE 04

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,84 per match, away sides 1,46

IN FAVOUR OF RB LEIPZIG

  • RB Leipzig's attack is %25 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Schalke 04's attack is %18 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1491 – 1589: RB Leipzig ahead by 98 points — effect on expected goals %5Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • RB Leipzig concedes %5 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Schalke 04 -0,27, RB Leipzig +0,24

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.