Skip to content
Bundesliga31 Oct 17:30 TRT

Bayer 04 Leverkusen×VfB Stuttgart

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 56.2%fair odds 1.78
  • FT X · draw: 21.1%fair odds 4.73
  • FT 2 · Stuttgart: 22.6%fair odds 4.42

Double chance

  • 1X · Bayer 04 Leverkusen doesn't lose:
    77.4%fair odds 1.29
    X2 · Stuttgart doesn't lose:
    43.8%fair odds 2.29
    12 · no draw:
    78.9%fair odds 1.27

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    25.2%fair odds 3.96
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    74.8%fair odds 1.34

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    71.8%fair odds 1.39
    BTTS No:
    28.2%fair odds 3.54

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    18.9%fair odds 5.29
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    81.1%fair odds 1.23

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Bayer 04 LeverkusenStuttgart
League tableadvantaged: 4. place 13 pts · 4W 1D 2L 15. place 6 pts · 2W 0D 5L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LWWWD2.0 pts/matchLLWLL0.6 pts/match

Goals

Bayer 04 LeverkusenStuttgart
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.391.51

Match total 3.9

Clean sheet1/51/5
Luck+0.1 puan−2.2 puan

Players

Bayer 04 LeverkusenStuttgart
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerPatrik Schick6 goalsErmedin Demirovic3 goals
Most dangerousPatrik Schickexpected goals 4.4Ermedin Demirovicexpected goals 3.8
FinisherPatrik Schick+1.6 goals vs expectationErmedin Demirovic−0.8 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperMark Flekkenconceded 2.9 goals more than expectedFabian Bredlowconceded 4.1 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsFacundo Medina2 yellowAngelo Stiller1 yellow

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity7/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.648

Last 8 months, 160 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.440 / 0.447

Last 8 months, 160 matches

Both Teams to Score?did not beat the league average 0.464 / 0.462

Last 8 months, 160 matches · yalnızca bilgi için

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF BAYER 04 LEVERKUSEN

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,84 per match, away sides 1,46
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen's attack is %21 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Bayer 04 Leverkusen concedes %9 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1612 – 1581: Bayer 04 Leverkusen ahead by 31 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0,13, Stuttgart -0,18

IN FAVOUR OF STUTTGART

  • Stuttgart's attack is %17 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.