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Bundesliga31 Oct 20:30 TRT

FC Bayern München×Borussia Dortmund

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Bayern München: 68.3%fair odds 1.46
  • FT X · draw: 17.9%fair odds 5.58
  • FT 2 · Borussia Dortmund: 13.7%fair odds 7.28

Double chance

  • 1X · Bayern München doesn't lose:
    86.3%fair odds 1.16
    X2 · Borussia Dortmund doesn't lose:
    31.7%fair odds 3.16
    12 · no draw:
    82.1%fair odds 1.22

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    25.3%fair odds 3.96
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    74.7%fair odds 1.34

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    66.0%fair odds 1.51
    BTTS No:
    34.0%fair odds 2.94

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    18.7%fair odds 5.33
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    81.3%fair odds 1.23

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
League tableadvantaged: 1. place 17 pts · 5W 2D 0L 2. place 17 pts · 5W 2D 0L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWDWW2.6 pts/matchWDDWW2.2 pts/match

Goals

Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.701.20

Match total 3.9

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 4/5
Luck−1.9 puan+3.2 puan

Players

Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
Last starting XI4-2-3-13-4-2-1
ScorerMichael Olise6 goalsSerhou Guirassy2 goals
Most dangerousHarry Kaneexpected goals 5.3Serhou Guirassyexpected goals 3.6
FinisherMichael Olise+2.5 goals vs expectationMaximilian Beier−0.9 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperManuel Neuerconceded 0.3 goals fewer than expectedGregor Kobelconceded 1.2 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsDayot Upamecano2 yellowSamuele Inácio1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity9/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.648

Last 8 months, 160 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.440 / 0.447

Last 8 months, 160 matches

Both Teams to Score?did not beat the league average 0.464 / 0.462

Last 8 months, 160 matches · yalnızca bilgi için

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF BAYERN MÜNCHEN

  • Bayern München's attack is %68 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,84 per match, away sides 1,46
  • Bayern München concedes %19 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1814 – 1677: Bayern München ahead by 137 points — effect on expected goals %7Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Bayern München +2,96, Borussia Dortmund +1,39

IN FAVOUR OF BORUSSIA DORTMUND

  • Borussia Dortmund concedes %25 fewer goals than the league average
  • Borussia Dortmund's attack is %12 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.