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Bundesliga1 Nov 17:30 TRT

1. FC Union Berlin×1. FC Köln

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Union Berlin: 37.7%fair odds 2.65
  • FT X · draw: 27.5%fair odds 3.64
  • FT 2 · Köln: 34.8%fair odds 2.87

Double chance

  • 1X · Union Berlin doesn't lose:
    65.2%fair odds 1.53
    X2 · Köln doesn't lose:
    62.3%fair odds 1.60
    12 · no draw:
    72.5%fair odds 1.38

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    43.5%fair odds 2.30
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    56.5%fair odds 1.77

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    60.9%fair odds 1.64
    BTTS No:
    39.1%fair odds 2.56

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    28.0%fair odds 3.57
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.0%fair odds 1.39

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Union BerlinKöln
League table17. place 6 pts · 1W 3D 3L advantaged: 12. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 3L
Last 5 matchesDDWLL1.0 pts/matchDLWLD1.0 pts/match

Goals

Union BerlinKöln
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.511.44

Match total 2.9

Clean sheetadvantaged: 2/51/5
Luck−0.3 puan−2.6 puan

Players

Union BerlinKöln
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerTim Skarke2 goalsSaid El Mala2 goals
Most dangerousTim Skarkeexpected goals 1.7Marius Bülterexpected goals 2.5
Finisher—Said El Mala−0.4 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperFrederik Rönnowconceded 1.4 goals more than expectedMarvin Schwäbeconceded 2.1 goals more than expected
Most cardsFelix Uduokhai3 yellow, 1 redGideon Mensah2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity1/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.648

Last 8 months, 160 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.440 / 0.447

Last 8 months, 160 matches

Both Teams to Score?did not beat the league average 0.464 / 0.462

Last 8 months, 160 matches · yalnızca bilgi için

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF UNION BERLIN

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,84 per match, away sides 1,46
  • Köln's attack is %7 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF KÖLN

  • Union Berlin's attack is %17 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Union Berlin -1,05, Köln +0,3

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.