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Bundesliga31 Oct 17:30 TRT

Borussia Mönchengladbach×SC Paderborn 07

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Borussia Mönchengladbach: 41.6%fair odds 2.40
  • FT X · draw: 27.3%fair odds 3.66
  • FT 2 · Paderborn 07: 31.0%fair odds 3.22

Double chance

  • 1X · Borussia Mönchengladbach doesn't lose:
    69.0%fair odds 1.45
    X2 · Paderborn 07 doesn't lose:
    58.4%fair odds 1.71
    12 · no draw:
    72.7%fair odds 1.38

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    43.6%fair odds 2.29
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    56.4%fair odds 1.77

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    60.5%fair odds 1.65
    BTTS No:
    39.5%fair odds 2.53

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    28.1%fair odds 3.56
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    71.9%fair odds 1.39

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Borussia MönchengladbachPaderborn 07
League table18. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 6L advantaged: 13. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 3L

Form and league table favours Paderborn 07, the model favours Borussia Mönchengladbach. In the 239 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 50%, the form and league table's side won 24%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesWLLLL0.6 pts/matchadvantaged: WDLWL1.4 pts/match

Goals

Borussia MönchengladbachPaderborn 07
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.591.35

Match total 2.9

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck−2.8 puan+1.2 puan

Players

Borussia MönchengladbachPaderborn 07
Last starting XI3-4-2-13-5-2
ScorerJoe Scally3 goalsSteffen Tigges2 goals
Most dangerousHugo Bolinexpected goals 2.3Laurin Curdaexpected goals 0.5
FinisherHugo Bolin−0.3 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperMoritz Nicolasconceded 2.0 goals more than expectedNahuel Nicolas Nollconceded 2.9 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsTim Kleindienst1 yellow, 1 redJano Horst2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity2/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.648

Last 8 months, 160 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.440 / 0.447

Last 8 months, 160 matches

Both Teams to Score?did not beat the league average 0.464 / 0.462

Last 8 months, 160 matches · yalnızca bilgi için

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,84 per match, away sides 1,46
  • Paderborn 07's attack is %15 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF PADERBORN 07

  • Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack is %12 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach concedes %8 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1437 – 1492: Paderborn 07 ahead by 55 points — effect on expected goals %3Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.