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Bundesliga30 Oct 22:30 TRT

SV 07 Elversberg×1. FSV Mainz 05

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · 07 Elversberg: 34.2%fair odds 2.93
  • FT X · draw: 23.8%fair odds 4.21
  • FT 2 · 1. FSV Mainz 05: 42.0%fair odds 2.38

Double chance

  • 1X · 07 Elversberg doesn't lose:
    58.0%fair odds 1.73
    X2 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 doesn't lose:
    65.8%fair odds 1.52
    12 · no draw:
    76.2%fair odds 1.31

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    28.8%fair odds 3.48
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    71.2%fair odds 1.40

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    71.8%fair odds 1.39
    BTTS No:
    28.2%fair odds 3.55

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    20.7%fair odds 4.82
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    79.3%fair odds 1.26

ANALYSES

Form and standings

07 Elversberg1. FSV Mainz 05
League table8. place 10 pts · 3W 1D 3L advantaged: 7. place 10 pts · 3W 1D 3L
Last 5 matchesLWLDL0.8 pts/matchadvantaged: LWLWL1.2 pts/match

Goals

07 Elversberg1. FSV Mainz 05
Expected goals1.75advantaged: 1.94

Match total 3.7

Clean sheet1/51/5
Luck+3.7 puan−2.5 puan

Players

07 Elversberg1. FSV Mainz 05
Last starting XI4-2-3-13-5-2
ScorerMaurice Krattenmacher3 goalsPhillip Tietz5 goals
Most dangerousLukas Petkovexpected goals 2.0Sheraldo Beckerexpected goals 1.6
FinisherMaurice Krattenmacher+0.6 goals vs expectationPhillip Tietz+1.0 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperNicolas Kristofconceded 2.3 goals more than expectedAlexander Schwolowconceded 1.3 goals more than expected
Most cardsFelix Keidel3 yellowPhillipp Mwene4 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity2/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.648

Last 8 months, 160 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.440 / 0.447

Last 8 months, 160 matches

Both Teams to Score?did not beat the league average 0.464 / 0.462

Last 8 months, 160 matches · yalnızca bilgi için

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF 07 ELVERSBERG

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,84 per match, away sides 1,46

IN FAVOUR OF 1. FSV MAINZ 05

  • 07 Elversberg concedes %17 more goals than the league average
  • 1. FSV Mainz 05's attack is %10 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: 07 Elversberg -1,09, 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0,08
  • Strength rating 1503 – 1515: 1. FSV Mainz 05 ahead by 12 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.