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Ligue 131 Oct 22:45 TRT

Olympique Lyonnais×Angers SCO

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Olympique Lyonnais: 68.5%fair odds 1.46
  • FT X · draw: 20.6%fair odds 4.86
  • FT 2 · Angers SCO: 11.0%fair odds 9.11

Double chance

  • 1X · Olympique Lyonnais doesn't lose:
    89.0%fair odds 1.12
    X2 · Angers SCO doesn't lose:
    31.5%fair odds 3.17
    12 · no draw:
    79.4%fair odds 1.26

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    42.1%fair odds 2.38
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    57.9%fair odds 1.73

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    50.1%fair odds 1.99
    BTTS No:
    49.9%fair odds 2.01

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.0%fair odds 3.71
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    73.0%fair odds 1.37

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Olympique LyonnaisAngers SCO
League tableadvantaged: 5. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 2L 14. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LWLWD1.4 pts/matchDLLWD1.0 pts/match

Goals

Olympique LyonnaisAngers SCO
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.210.80

Match total 3.0

Clean sheet2/5advantaged: 3/5
Luck+1.3 puan−0.5 puan

Players

Olympique LyonnaisAngers SCO
Last starting XI4-3-35-3-2
ScorerErnest Nuamah3 goalsAmine El Ouazzani2 goals
Most dangerousLoïs Opendaexpected goals 2.5Amine Sbaïexpected goals 1.5
FinisherErnest Nuamah+0.9 goals vs expectationProsper Peter−0.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperDominik Greifconceded 0.5 goals more than expectedAnthony Lopesconceded 1.0 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsKeito Nakamura1 redJordan Lefort1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity9/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF OLYMPIQUE LYONNAIS

  • Angers SCO's attack is %22 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,59 per match, away sides 1,26
  • Angers SCO concedes %14 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1597 – 1401: Olympique Lyonnais ahead by 196 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Olympique Lyonnais concedes %9 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Olympique Lyonnais +0,37, Angers SCO -0,84

IN FAVOUR OF ANGERS SCO

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.