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Ligue 131 Oct 19:15 TRT

OGC Nice×Stade Rennais FC 1901

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Nice: 29.5%fair odds 3.39
  • FT X · draw: 26.1%fair odds 3.83
  • FT 2 · Stade Rennais FC 1901: 44.4%fair odds 2.25

Double chance

  • 1X · Nice doesn't lose:
    55.6%fair odds 1.80
    X2 · Stade Rennais FC 1901 doesn't lose:
    70.5%fair odds 1.42
    12 · no draw:
    73.9%fair odds 1.35

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    39.6%fair odds 2.53
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    60.4%fair odds 1.66

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    63.2%fair odds 1.58
    BTTS No:
    36.8%fair odds 2.72

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    26.1%fair odds 3.84
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    73.9%fair odds 1.35

ANALYSES

Form and standings

NiceStade Rennais FC 1901
League table10. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 3L advantaged: 2. place 16 pts · 5W 1D 2L
Last 5 matchesWLWWL1.8 pts/matchWLWLW1.8 pts/match

Goals

NiceStade Rennais FC 1901
Expected goals1.39advantaged: 1.74

Match total 3.1

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck+3.0 puan+3.4 puan

Players

NiceStade Rennais FC 1901
Last starting XI3-4-2-15-3-2
ScorerElye Wahi3 goalsEsteban Lepaul7 goals
Most dangerousSepe Elye Wahiexpected goals 2.8Esteban Lepaulexpected goals 5.1
FinisherSepe Elye Wahi+0.2 goals vs expectationEsteban Lepaul−0.5 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperYehvann Dioufconceded 1.3 goals fewer than expectedBrice Sambaconceded 2.3 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsElye Wahi3 yellowAdrien Thomasson3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity4/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF NICE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,59 per match, away sides 1,26
  • Stade Rennais FC 1901 concedes %11 more goals than the league average

IN FAVOUR OF STADE RENNAIS FC 1901

  • Nice's attack is %14 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Stade Rennais FC 1901's attack is %17 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Nice concedes %13 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1476 – 1586: Stade Rennais FC 1901 ahead by 110 points — effect on expected goals %6Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Nice -0,39, Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0,03

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.